- Wealth PMS (50L+)
Taking a cue from sports fantasy leagues in 2021, we initiated the Capitalmind Premium League (CPL) – a virtual stock picking contest for Capitalmind Premium subscribers. With this post, we conclude the third edition (2023) of this contest and launch the 2024 edition.
The game provides a risk-free environment to apply your market views without the fear of financial repercussions. It’s a thought experiment to see that when you think independently, without the risk of losing actual money, what do you actually bet on?
One thing is clear: fantasy games have no room for average rankings. Just like you don’t scroll past the first page of Google search results, it doesn’t matter much how poorly you’ve done once you are beyond the top 10. Capitalmind Premium League (CPL) is no different—the top 10 players get goodies and bragging rights, while others get to see how right or wrong their predictions were.
Over the past 3 editions, we have learned that the idea is not to recklessly pick “hot stocks” or be too conservative, but to think about “who will make you win the match?” That is, “which theme/sector/trend/stock will play out nicely over the next year?”
Before you go about picking your picks, take a look at how we did last year.
In the 2022 edition, Adani Power was the top gainer, while other Adani stocks also performed extraordinarily well. However, today, these stocks are nowhere to be seen on the toppers list. Instead, they are among the top losers. How things change in a matter of 1 year!
Fertilisers And Chemicals Travancore Ltd (FACT) was the top gainer in NSE500 over the last year, gaining by 480%. Interestingly, over 200 Premium participants picked 5 stocks each, totaling 1000+ stocks, and yet nobody picked this stock. However, 4 portfolios did pick Suzlon, which has generally been a wealth destructor, but this year it did return 320%. BSE, RVNL, and IRFC had some takers though!
Adani stocks were on a dream run post-COVID but hit a roadblock as the Hindenburg report was released. Over the past year, the stocks are down heavily, with ATGL (-85%), ADANIENSOL (-77%), ADANIGREEN (-57%), and AWL (-54%) making it to the top losers list.
Only 7 portfolios, out of 200, had any of these 4 Adani stocks in them. I think, as a community, that is a well-dodged bullet.
The key thing to remember is that an 85% drawdown is not the same magnitude (opposite direction) as an 85% gain – it’s far, far worse. Because, to make up for an 85% drawdown, the stock has to gain 666% or go up 6.6 times. That’s why it is as important, if not more, to avoid the destruction of capital than to look for that alpha.
Where did the house bet
Nasdaq 100 has been a favourite investment choice of this community as we see this instrument getting picked year after year. This year, it did not disappoint as it gained 37% by nicely beating the Nifty 50 index (8%). Gold was picked by 24 portfolios and it also did a cool 20%.
Here is the leaderboard. The top 10 winners, apart from the bot and Nihit (CM team), stand to receive Capitalmind goodies and bragging rights!
Objective – To step into the shoes of a fund manager/asset allocator with a 1-year view and try to beat the market with a fantasy portfolio. Note, this is a theoretical exercise and does not involve actual money.
The rules are basically the same as last year.
As each year, the contest closes 1 week before the 2024 Muhurat trading day. We’ll also share regular leaderboards to show how everyone is doing.
Premium members will receive an email with a link to a simple form to submit their fantasy stock picks. The link will also be posted on the slack channel.
Please make sure to enter your Capitalmind registered email id. Only entries received before 3.30 pm on 24th November 2023 will be eligible for participation. The portfolio will consider closing prices for 24th November as the buy price of the portfolios.
Go on, channel your inner fund manager, and let’s see where you find yourselves on Diwali 2024!
Ping us on #helpdesk for any queries 😃
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