Forecasting is a very difficult business, like selecting lottery tickets. No one could have predicted 2022 as a year in which there was geopolitical war, worldwide inflation, a massive hike in interest rates worldwide, and the US S&P 500 down about 20%, and yet, the Indian markets ended up 4%. If anyone got this spot on, they could still be terribly wrong for 2023.
That’s why we don’t predict, we react.
So, what’s going to happen in 2023?
We can almost hear this question, despite all the data that says prediction is a waste of time. But then, much about the markets is an entertainment business, which means it’s great to see people make crazy zany predictions, and maybe some of them will win. So we’ll participate mildly in what should purely be entertainment, even if at some point it appears to have deep investing insights.
Show Notes and References
1:55 Where should we invest in 2023 and some random predictions
3:00 Four ways this decade will be different from the last one
8:30 Return of Volatility in the markets
14:00 The peril of high interest rates
Podcast: Investing in a world with high interest rates
17:00 Return of inflation and higher yields
23:00 Putting Indian inflation in perspective
34:20 Geopolitical turmoil & the return of asset-heavy
39:40 ChatGPT, role of AI & Predicting how humans will react
47:00 Tactically where do I invest my money now?
51:00 Sectors that are positioned well for the current macroeconomic scenario
59:45 Will emerging markets outshine US markets?
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