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Charts & Analysis

Charts: A Marginally Negative September Takes Nifty Returns for 2017 to 19.6% (Headline Changed)


Note: Headline for the post has changed. SIP data calculations for the Nifty were incorrect. We apologize for the error.
September returns for the Nifty were at -1.3% taking the 2017 returns to 19.6% so far this year. This is the second consecutive negative month for the year.
The Sensex has done slightly worse for the year. It’s still a little above median returns.
Charts: A Marginally Negative September Takes Nifty Returns for 2017 to 19.6% (Headline Changed)

10 year returns fall below 7%

Note: we had earlier posted that 10 year SIP return had fallen below 7%. It turns out that the 10 year return calculations had inadvertantly been calculated wrong for the SIP method. (point to point 10-year returns are below 7%, due to the rise in Nifty 10 years ago, but not SIP return) We apologise for the error.

10 year SIP Returns of Nifty at 9.9%

An error in an excel sheet we used has now been fixed, and now we have more accurate returns on what you would have made if you had invested on a regular basis (every month) for 10 years, your return would be 9.9% on the money so far. This may sound low but remember that the Nifty does not include dividends, so you would get about 1% to 2% more a year for dividends.
The actual graph for a 10-year Rolling SIP return (each point is as if a 10 year SIP had ended on that date, and the return calculated) is this:
Nifty 10 year
The lowest was a 6% return around end-December.
Overall, this is not too bad, and 5-year SIP is around 10.4% and a 3 year SIP, around 9.1%. A lumpsum investment in 10 years would have only returned 6.9% so the SIP does seem to outperform.
The Nifty 2017 returns at 19% till September is brilliant even with two bad months, back-to-back. October tends to be one of the worst months of the year (speaking of averages and medians) but with a very high standard deviation – so it’s a very volatile month. Let’s see what it has in store for us.


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