Feb has only 28 days. So the monthly trade numbers will be lower. What instead if we did the actual number of days and tried to compare this over time? Feb has been very very good indeed:
Meanwhile, non oil imports have recovered now, and oil imports are much higher in percentage terms (but relatively flat again due to a low base).
We run a deficit on the merchandise trade but a surplus on services. However net service surplus is still around $5 billion, and has been much lower than earlier. We don’t have Feb data yet, this is till January 2017.
While the base was low last year, this seems to be a change from previous years in terms of total trade per day. However, we have to note that:
These are just some negatives – because gold is usually used for non-productive reasons, so the imports don’t work in our favour. Still, this is the best data we have seen in a while, and let’s hope it continues. (The base effect means we will get better trade data in the near future)
The USD INR is now at 65.4 which is fairly low. And that means the export competitiveness may fade – let’s see how that works out.