Capitalmind
Capitalmind
Actionable insights on equities, fixed-income, macros and personal finance Start 14-Days Free Trial
Actionable investing insights Get Free Trial
Economy

How Much More Fuel Does This Growing India Consume?

Oil-Refineries-India.jpg

India with the world’s second largest population has been seeing a steady increase in oil demand. The current consumption rate for India is 4.2 million barrels per day (mbpd). India currently is the third largest oil consumer after US (19.39 mbpd) and China (11.96 mbpd), followed closely by Japan (4.15 mbpd).

Oil-Refineries India

Diesel is 40% of all Consumption

Data from petroleum and planning cell indicates diesel consumption in India accounting for nearly 40% of the total oil consumption. The average diesel consumption in March-2016 was 1.56 mbpd. Where as petrol accounted for a modest 12% of total consumption, with average consumption in March-2016 at 0.47 mbpd. The average consumption of LPG in March-2016 was at 0.422 mbpd and accounted for 10% of its total oil consumption.
Petroleum products Consumtion and Demand India 2002 to 2016

 

Though petrol accounts for only 12% of the total India’s oil consumption, but it has the fastest growth in consumption in petroleum products at 15.26% (3 month moving average). Diesel and LPG have the consumption growth at 11.28% and 11.39%.

The government has been pushing users to  give up their LPG subsidy, and the age old “chulla” based cooking system is increasingly replaced by LPG in rural areas. In the 2016 budget, the government has even allocated 2000 cr. to getting more rural households LPG access. 

India Gasoline demand

Petrol usage has significantly increased from start of FY15, The increase can be attributed to lowering petrol prices and significant rise in sales of two wheelers. Petrol car sales have also seen a tremendous rise mainly due to the converging petrol and diesel prices and as a matter of fact, petrol cars are lot cheaper compared to diesel ones.

Petrol Diesel Historical Retail Selling Price 2002 to 2016 Delhi

Diesel prices in India are no longer regulated and the prices, which were earlier subsidized for diesel compared to petrol, are no longer substantially lower than petrol. 

Cars: It’s Only Starting

According to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, car sales increased by 5.6%  in FY16, to 2.7 million units. In comparison, 25 million cars were sold in China during the same period, while 4.9 million were sold in Japan. As you can see, India’s just getting started. 

The motorization rate in India as of 2014 is 22 cars per 1000 persons, where as for China and Japan it is 102 and 607 respectively. This indicates the immense potential India has in terms of car usage growth, and thus, oil demand.

Additionally, demand comes from diesel generators (which power a number of homes, apartments and commercial buildings). But here, as wholesale power generation increases, distribution of grid power could reduce diesel demand over time. The big oil demand will still be from vehicles. 

India’s growing oil demand is seen as a substitute for the slowing demand in developed economies by the oil producers. Crude oil prices have recovered from $30/barrel to $50/barrel. According to a report by International Energy Agency, by 2040, India will add 6.0 mbpd to the global demand, while China – only 4.9 mbpd, while driving the global oil supply and demand gap. Oil is India’s largest import and the concern is that this demand will push up the trade deficit. 

While India’s metros are cramped and overpopulated with vehicles, the smaller towns and villages need efficient transportation – and for that, there is really no alternative to cars, buses or trucks. It makes sense to restrict cities from smogging up the landscape, but we have to allow the smaller towns and villages their transport.  

Oil demand will continue to increase, and reflects economic activity; but at some point, we’ll need to either find oil locally, or push to aggressively adopt electric cars in order to reduce import demand. 

 

  • manoj_augustine says:

    If India skips the motorization growth path of other countries- like it skipped the Land telephony path – in view of expanding urbanisation leading to Uber’s equivalent , then this story may not play out .

    • Manoj, Uber can’t operate in any reasonable way in sparsely populated areas. The countryside is vast and urbanization will mean that smaller towns will grow, and they will need transportation – the Uber types will only lose money in big cities, they can’t really do their bit in smaller towns I think.