The Nifty moved 1.4% up in April, which took teh annual return to just about flat (the index is down about 1.2% in 2016). We’ve now had two lousy months (Jan and Feb) and two good months (March and April) – with May already showing signs of recalcitrance.
The Sensex we have a longer history for:
What you might notice is:
There are of course some months with reasons. March, because it tends to be the financial year end, has implications on profit booking etc.
January, April, July and October tend to see volatility due to result announcements that happen in the first month after the quarter closes.
May is mostly an election month so there’s always a big move every five years or so. Feb is a budget month, and December is when FIIs close their books etc.
But it’s dangerous to work through a strategy that purely depends on month alone as a differentiating criterion. Just saying, even though I love the visual feel of the charts above.