- Wealth PMS
India’s inflation for April 2016 sprung a surprise: it went up to 5.39% as a surprise.
The worry really is food inflation. Housing inflation goes up in April as most government accommodation resets happen in April.
Note that transport costs are also up.
Rural inflation, being more reliant on food, is going up too:
Our View: Inflation going up like this is bad. The first chart shows you an uptick in overall inflation as an index. The big deal really is in “core” inflation – when you remove food and fuel, and then compare the index month on month, you see it’s now rising suddenly and rapidly.
This is at 6.83% annualized and is more scary. Of course, April could be an anomaly – but the trend isn’t looking good. If inflation reappears, our rate cut cycle will disappear and with it, much about the economy. We have to have a revival without high inflation, and RBI is well aware of that.