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General

The Economics of the Bullet Train and Whether It Makes Financial Sense To Take a 0.1% Loan

Is the Ahmedabad Mumbai Bullet Train an acceptable investment? The deal is:

  • The press release says Japan will loan India Rs. 79,000 cr. for 50 years at 0.1%
  • No need to pay back for the first 15 years
  • The project cost is about 98,000 cr. over 7 years, with 500 kilometer of railway lines laid
  • The technology will be the Shikansen system from Japan.
  • Does it make sense to take it?

Train

Shoaib Daniyal writes at scroll.in that it’s not a useful investment:

In fact, shockingly, the bullet train budget is 2.4X the entire amount the government of India is going to spend on the Indian Railways in 2015-’16.

The Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train budget is also 2.3X the entire spend of the Centre on schools. The corresponding figure for health and highways is 3.3 and 2.3, respectively.

The argument is: Don’t do it, there’s other stuff that needs to be done. But it’s not clear why we should take 8% loans to do that stuff while not taking 0.1% loans to do a bullet train.

And Vivek Kaul responds in Firstpost that:

The bullet train between Mumbai and Ahmedabad will cost Rs 97,636 crore and will be built over seven years. Hence, the entire Rs 98,000 crore (approximately) will not be spent in one year. Given this, the comparisons with the health budget, the education budget, the road and highways budget, that have appeared in the media, are incorrect.

Who’s Right?

Well, the problem is – what is the question? That the bullet train is a waste of money? Or that Japan’s loan is still too expensive?

For that you have to look at the economics. The loan of Rs. 79,000 cr. – it’s nice to have, but it is only part of the game.

The Exchange Rate Issue: The 79,000 cr. loan could actually be denominated in Rupees – we don’t know if not. That means Japan will take the risk of an exchange rate drop; this may not be too much, considering the rupee has gone from Rs. 40 for a 100 yen in 2001 to just Rs. 55 now, which is an annual increase of just 2.1%. Given the level of QE currently going on in Japan, it wouldn’t be surprising if they were happy to take the exchange rate risk on themselves.

Also India’s RBI has a $50 billion swap deal with Japan on the Yen-Rupee, and this could be used or enhanced to hedge out the difference in exchange rates.

The Economics

A loan of Rs. 79,000 cr. for a project spend of Rs. 98,000 cr. means the Railways has to put up equity of Rs. 19,000 cr. on its own.

Since the loan is at 0.1% per year, the return in terms of interest will be Rs. 79 cr. per year for this line.

We don’t know what the operational expenditure will be for a line like this, but let’s look at revenue. The lines in Japan can carry 13 trains per hour at 1,300 passengers each. Assuming the longer term situation is just one train per 30 minutes for about 18 hours per day, the rough plan is:

  • 36 trips per day, in each direction – 72 trips
  • Let’s just say 1,000 passengers or so – and say the deal is for 72,000 passengers a day.
  • For Rs. 3,000 per trip, that’s about Rs. 21 cr. of revenue per day.
  • For a year of about 250 days , that’s about 5,000 cr. of revenue
  • Assume they make 20% gross profit EBIT (after depreciation and opex) – that would give them Rs. 1,000 cr. of pre-interest profit per year.
  • They can easily afford Rs. 79 cr. of interest, or, assuming another 2% depreciation on the Yen, 300 cr. of interest a year.
  • That still leaves them with Rs. 900 cr. of profit for an investment of Rs. 19,000 cr. – where the ROI isn’t great at 5%. But they can increase that by advertising charges, rentals etc.
  • And much of this is flexible to things like 5% inflation (which in 15 years will double prices and profitability, but keep debt levels the same), increasing frequency of trains etc.

Can the project pay the loan back as well? The principal amount per year, after the 15th year, will be about Rs. 2,000 cr. per year. That should be possible if they tweak profitability, and has larger benefits in the faster commute and better infrastructure anyhow.

Note: The assumptions above are simplistic and assume costs will be less than the revenue. We have made that assumption now, but it might turn out the costs are higher, and the tickets are priced beyond the reach of a regular traveller. That could change the outcome.

The “Other” Aspects

Is a bullet train desirable when we don’t have enough toilets? Oh come on. I find this kind of argument distasteful. If this is the argument then I would argue that no one deserves to buy laptops or any other form of entertainment until all of India’s “basic” problems are solved – and that is a stupid line of debate.

Since the train is a luxury, it will need to generate serious employment or GDP – and will, in the years of building it, in the form of labour, steel, concrete (most of it will have to be elevated) and train equipment. We will however pay a good portion of that loan to the Japanese suppliers of certain equipment, technology or trains. That’s inevitable, and the single big reason why they are giving us this cheap loan. But we’ll also understand the technology ourselves, and it’s possible that subsequent bullet trains are made entirely by Indian companies at costs much lower. Overall, infrastructure development of this sort is desirable.

Will the government be taking on too much debt? We have about Rs. 42 lakh crores of loans by the central government, which isn’t much. This will add Rs. 79,000 cr. more (if it’s taken by the government) – but at the low interest cost this adds very little to our interest bill. (We currently pay a massive amount of money as interest, as much as 8% on each loan) The loan won’t kill us and this is precisely why we should be taking loans – to build excellent infrastructure.

This is not a private-public partnership so the execution will be done by the Railways. They’ll need a corporatized structure like the Delhi Metro corporation, and we’ve seen that succeed. There’s good enough reason to believe they might pull this off too.

Overall, the project is economically feasible, in our opinion, and it’s not a “waste” of anything. India needs such loans so that that burden of building such projects can be reduced – and we should take full advantage of Japan’s ultra low interest rates while doing so. (And, in fact, push the yen-rupee hedge costs to them if possible) We wouldn’t compare it to the cost of education or anything else – because this project can, by itself, yield enough return to pay for itself in the long term. (Education is a spend we don’t see returns from – at least not directly – so it’s most like a social spend that will help the country rather than an investment that directly returns money)

The political wizards will easily find holes in any argument because it suits their political affiliation. However, the prospect of a 50 year project will span multiple political boundaries, and in this case, the prime reason to loo
k at bullet trains is – will they be able to give us positive returns, or will they be white elephants? At the low cost loan being provided to build this project, this might be an answer well worth finding out.

  • Bunker says:

    Any money whatsoever will come from taxpayer. i.e those who pay taxes. i.e those who file tax returns. And how many? Last 10 year statistics reveals that annually not more than 4 crore tax returns get filed. Lets take 2015. We have some 83 crore adults in the nation, and some 4 crore people have paid taxes. Those 4 crores are employers, businessman and everyone combined.
    When in 2025 the high speed train becomes operational:
    a) Will Ahmedabadis require to visit Mumbai that often?
    b) Will Ahmedabad – Gandhinagar zone itself not become a independent powerhouse of its own with less dependence on Mumbai?
    c) Will people really feel the need to travel Ahmedabad for anything? I myself falling in the 4 crore people I never felt the need to visit Ahmedabad for any purpose on job or anything.
    With only 5 to 7 crore people capable of paying any taxes, and hardly anyone of them ever requiring a need to travel that fast at that price, who will be using this? The top class? So if top class is going to use and travel, why Govt of India should pay the money from general taxpayer category? Why not tax only the top class corporates and use that extra tax for bullet train?
    I come from a vast Indian Railways background, experience with Dad serving as Mail Guard on trains. he worked for 38.5 yrs in Railways. India has many other things to do with that money rather than just laying down 500 km of track. Junk!
    Why are they not developing complete independent freight line network in India?
    Bullet trains or any that matter is a long gone era. Had it been targeted in 1970s and 1980s it would have made sense. 2015 is a modern era and even those developed nations like US which missed the bullet and maglev boat back then are not accepting that technology.
    Valve radio sets sound too good on AM and SW bands, so will it be feasible to launch manufacturing for the same now in 2015?
    You cannot and should not catchup with an era that was left long ago.

    • You forget that this money is not available at 0.1% if you don’t build a bullet train. For anyhting else we borrow at 7.8%.
      The money for this is coming largely from Japan – and the rest isn’t exactly being spent from government coffers, it’s an investment that will yield a good enough return, like I’ve mentioned.
      Independent freight network etc. is coming anyhow, that is a separate plan and is funded differently.
      Yes, Mumbai Ahd may be suspect I agree. Though people do think that this is potentially scalable, but we don’t know if the 72K passengers will happen. The idea is perhaps to build one across the Mumbai Delhi corridor, which might be an 8 hour train and replace part of the massively congested flight system as well.

      • Viral says:

        Deepak, Do you really believe there will be daily 72000 passanger will travel daily from Ahm-Mum at cost of 3000 Rs per trip? It will be hardly 2000 to 8000 passenger, that makes all your calculations go wrong.. add year maintenance cost charged by japanese. This is bad deal.

      • Ajay says:

        I do not understand the logic behind the argument that because money is available at 0.1% (compared to 7.8% otherwise), we should take it and spend it on something that is not even remotely a priority for us. Your calculations also seem to be farfetched. 72000 passengers a day at 3000 Rs.? And 72 trips a day (that is a train leaving every 40 minutes. Do you even know if they are planning separate tracks for up and down journeys?)? Rather than making such absurd assumptions, volume of daily passenger traffic between Mumbai and Ahmedabad and estimation of how much of it is likely to be diverted to bullet train at 3000 Rs. ticket cost would have been a much better approach. And finally, do you really think anyone did any of these calculations BEFORE they announced the bullet train? All of this appears as if you had already made up your mind about the issue and then came up with some mathematical mumbo-jumbo to support it.

  • Paddy says:

    Apart from Mumbai – AHD route, the biggest suspect / assumption is that we will abide by the implementation timeline and hence stick to the budget; That will be sort of a record in the history of India – One of the biggest infra projects being completed within time and schedule;
    Look at the Bangalore Metro for example: They have taken 3X the time and >2X the original budget – and the project is still long away from being called close to completion.
    Well, not to say, this project could complete within time: If the Honorable PM monitors on a day-to-day basis, given that it is his prestige, pride and legacy on the block!.

    • Abhi says:

      I dont think this analysis is anything more than excel sheet crunching by a person who knows nothing about the core business but Konkan Railways, Delhi Metro – both completed before time and within budget. They were both mammoth projects.

      • Paddy says:

        Yeah your’re correct!.
        But then for rationality – These are very few examples out of a thousand projects that have gone Kaput on the cost/ timeline dimension 🙂 No doubt this is a strategic project of National importance and a very proud one for all of us – But then lets also respect the reality that we have seen in the past w.r.t our implementation disciple!

  • Kumar says:

    Same argument is done everywhere,why can’t this money spend on some other project. Not sure why people can’t understand a simple thing that Japan giving this low interest loan to purely sell their bullet trains,they wont finance for other projects.

  • Shiv Kumar says:

    why should the railways pick up the tab on this one? let them form a private company, list and build the system. If passengers fail to take this train, let the company go under. Under the existing system, the risk is being borne by the majority of the railway passengers who will not be using this train.

  • rajesh says:

    Dear Sir,
    1. In Japan fare for 713 km is 17350 Yen or around Rs 9500
    2. Investment in their Train system is already depreciated
    3. Fixed cost is always secondary to operational cost in such projects
    4.What is the projected cost/revenue
    5.75000 customers daily to avail services at ticket price of Rs 3000 or 10000 or xxxx
    6.Will the number of projected travelers materialize or remain projection only
    4. What about competitive technologies like Maglev
    5. Nominal Interest rate is unimportant because usually it is built-in in the price itself

  • RAJESH AGRAWAL says:

    Deepak Just remember this figure on exchange rate between 1976 and 2016 i.e.40 years – Yen has appreciated approx 17 times. So don’t do any calculation on Rupee. To the best of my knowledge all foreign loans are designated in Foreign Currency and not in Rupee terms. Taking this loan will prove to be pledging the next seven generations.

    • Sorry, but pre 2000 the rupee rates were all wonky. I have seen from 2000 when we have had a decently traded market, and even though inflation differential in the two countries has been huge, the average change is 2.1% (40 to 55 per 100 yen)

  • Gautam says:

    “I find this kind of argument distasteful. If this is the argument then I would argue that no one deserves to buy laptops or any other form of entertainment until all of India’s “basic” problems are solved – and that is a stupid line of debate.”
    How about let us have a track record of completion of basic projects before we take such mega projects? Seriously how does it look for you when you have potholes the size of mars craters on the road and you have a bullet train whizzing at the top? You don’t have to look very far. It is right there in Bangalore. On top of that toxic lakes with foam flying around during rain. Seriously isn’t that distasteful enough?
    I am very progressive but I cannot really agree with this. Hopefully this does not end like the toppling of the Shah of Iran. History has a way of repeating itself.
    There are enough simpler projects which would make a huge difference in people’s lives. These are the low hanging fruits the Government should solve which would give them instant momentum to solve bigger problems. Just like you mentioned learning the technical expertise to make a bullet train there would be people who would learn how to complete projects in time by starting small. Just my 2 cents.

    • I find it distasteful to say because we have other problems we shouldn’t do X. THis train can be built independent of any other project – potholes or whatever. I don’t care if there are simpler projects – we can do them simultaneiously, we aren’t limited in people bandwidth – and the money is also coming cheap.

  • Ankit says:

    What is your logic behind fare of 3k per trip ? Air Fare right now for same trip costs 1.5k .. so a bullet train which lies somewhere between normal 2-3 Tier AC train and a flight should cost around 1k. Am I missing something ?

    • Happy to change the numbers, going by expectations. Nearly all flights today show 3K+ all the way to Jan end.
      In seven years we’d probably be able to get the 3k number to work.

      • S says:

        Ticket prices on the fastest train today from Mumbai to Ahmedabad is Rs 1000(3A) to Rs 2200(1A)
        You still think Rs 3000 is viable in 10 years when the project is likely to be ready? Bullet trains look price elastic to me.

        • S says:

          Also, in many places, like Europe, bullet train travel is typically more expensive than flights. If the corporatised structure is going to be independent of the Railways, there will be freight income to cross-subsidise ticket prices.

  • GP says:

    Few points missed out in above article and subsequent comments :-
    1. Mumbai – Ahm is not a standalone line. It’s part of the Mumbai – ahm – jaipur – Delhi line which is actually the plan.
    2. Point of bullet train is to curtail air travel since it can take load of many fights n turn out cheaper.
    3. Ahmadabad is envisioned to grow like a hub similar to Mumbai .. N can connect tier 3 towns to Mumbai or Delhi via tier 2 cities like AHM or Jaipur.
    4. Long term railway vision is interstate travel to be daily to & fro. Intra state will be regular rajdhani type signal free. City transport will be metro which will be fed by bus / taxi.
    5. Similar plan for south India is chennai – Coimbatore – BLR – tvm.

    • Billu says:

      AHM to JPR may be just for propaganda. The passengers are not rich enough/large enough to justify a bullet. Although Delhi-JPR is quite possible in future.
      Who knows, this is a showpiece, if this works (as in is profitable) you may very well have intra-state bullets. Chennai-Bangalore is even shorter but the terrain is a difficult one, can be done but per km cost would be quite higher than this one.

  • GP says:

    Spinoff expected from bullet train for other Indian railways projects.
    1. Expertise in laying concrete beds for tracks which will reduce maintenance.
    2. Wagons n other paraphernalia need to be compulsorily light weight. Again will save fuel n speeds.
    3. World class signalling n anti collision avoidance system needs to be in place. Again learning for railways.
    4. World standard toilets can be made in India 🙂 . can be used in bus n metro also.
    5. People realize possibility of what is the living standard of a lower middle class individual in developed nations.

  • Santhosh Kudva says:

    Deepak
    Glad you wrote this. The topic needed some honest financial perspective.
    I always hoped for a Mangalore Bangalore bullet train myself. Maybe our Japanese friends will give us a 0.005% loan for that one 😉
    More seriously, given we have toll and traffic data, passenger rail and flight ticket data finding the most congested route and therefore operationally viable route should be a cinch.
    As long as political largesse is not at play there are good ways to discover the most operationally cost efficient routes.

  • Subhash says:

    Deepak,
    Big fan of your articles.
    One check, what is the basis for 36 trips x 1000 per trip data? Current traffic? Thanks!
    regards

  • Dude says:

    Assuming BOM-AHD route has a demand for 72000 passengers travelling per day. You don’t want it to end up like delhi airport metro line.

  • FB says:

    The real question is whether the bullet train is a substitute for some other form of travel or whether it will spur significantly higher number of people to travel on this route.
    In the scenario where it substitutes the passengers who travel by 1st AC currently, the assumption that passengers will pay Rs 3000 for a one way trip looks a bit shaky especially given that 1st AC fares between Mumbai and Ahmedabad currently cost between Rs 1000-2000 and the 1st AC capacity is somewhere between 100-200 or so seats. Even if one were to assume that it is a substitute for air travel, lets remember that a one-way air ticket costs around Rs 1500-2000 now and would mean the same door-to-door travel time. Also, I don’t have the data but I doubt that anywhere close to 36,000 passengers fly between Mumbai and Ahmedabad daily.
    Of course, there would be some benefit from the multiplier effect from the infrastructure investment.

  • piyushpatel001 says:

    I could not agree more. Other benefits include de congestion of existing rail route which is most busiest rail line. We need more such deals in infra development. Private companies with high interest borrowing make it many infra projects nonviable.

  • prasadoak says:

    Question – can the same bullet train infrastructure be used for fast(est) form of goods transport? In other words, can it replace the by-air delivery of select few items? If yes, then the revenue numbers should be augmented with goods transport (numbers from tolls, air fright fare etc.).
    In addition to direct financial benefits, we should also consider other gains such as (1) people staying farther away and commuting to work. Boon for real estate in tier II cities (2) development of manufacturing hubs along the way, with easy reach to markets. Boon for employment and related elevation in standard of living.
    Overall, I agree with Deepak’s view. Whether this initiative is directly profitable or not, we should take this virtually free money and build knowledge of high speed + safe rail network.

  • Ugly Truth says:

    When we convinced ourselves to defend a certain view point, it’s very difficult to listen to logical opposing arguments. Deepak seems you would find any opposing argument distasteful by default.
    Any project can be validated with spurious assumptions. 72K passenger a day paying 3K per trip!!!! Seems like, it is going to end up like Delhi Airport metro line. Unfortunately here we stand to lose taxpayers money. Why it can’t be completely private? Why not make this a 100% FDI category? Why the poor (they all are paying indirect taxes) has to take the burnt?
    But who cares!!!! Our heads should always aim for stars even if the rest of the body is buried under filth. Politically, this is a wonderful opportunity to fool ourselves with an empty achievement!!!!

    • The problem is: you don’t refute that this is possible – just random exclamation marks don’t help. The “distaste” of that argument has been laid plain and simple and I really couldn’t care less about that argument, it’s bullshit. There are good critiques of my numbers (many are here, many on twitter) which I’m happy to take on board. But don’t give me bullshit like oh, we should concentrate on other things. Blech.
      We don’t lose much in terms of tax payer money honestly, and I think the project is financially viable. Yes, it could be a completely private projet (or the corporatized entity could even be listed and ownership transferred after it’s started).

      • Paddy says:

        Like your last argument. Most of these projects should be corporatized, listed (to bring transparency) and ownership transferred. Definitely will enhance accountability on all fronts.

  • Amit Gupta says:

    I think you are being far too optimistic in your estimates with regards to both fares and demand. Lets assume that this trains was operational today and do some simplistic analysis.
    Air Fares
    Except for next 2-3 days, ticket prices on this route are almost always near the Rs. 2000 mark. Lets assume the ticket is priced at comparable price of Rs. 2000
    Demand
    Some back of the envelope calculations – Indigo operates 6 daily flights on this sector and with their 180 seater Airbus which translates to 2160 pax (both ways). Assuming their market share is about a third that translates to just 6000 air travellers on this route. There about 20 trains running daily between this route. Lets say each train has 200 seats (lets err on the higher side) for 1st AC and 2nd AC seats. So thats another potential 8000 travellers (200*20*2). So thats total addressable market of about 14,000 passengers. Lets assume 10000 (again too optimistic) make the switch to High Speed Trains.
    So what would our revenues be? 10000*365*2000 = 730 crores annually
    Now lets forget about the Japanese Loan. Consider it free money. But government has to put in 20000 crore in equity. Now that has a real opportunity cost – with 8% borrowing rate, this entails an annual interest cost of 1600 crores.
    I am sure there we can expand this to include other sources of revenues etc etc (and cost overruns etc). I have not even covered operational costs but you can see where the problem lies?
    I hope I am wrong but I think the feasibility of this project is dependent on far too optimistc estimates which the current reality simply does not justify. Also, its easy to think inflation will take care of things but reality is different when it comes to infrastructure projects – check just how successful Noida Toll has been in raising tolls. As for currency risk for such a long period I doubt any loan provider will be willing to take on – certainly not the conservative Japs.

  • Santhosh Kudva says:

    Here is the JICA presentation from 2013. It has some passenger estimates as well as fare estimates among other things
    http://www.jterc.or.jp/koku/koku_semina/pdf/130211-jic-presentation.pdf

  • Kaushik says:

    Instead of developing the corridor, just laying a bullet train serves no purpose. Deepak you maybe getting the money cheap, but think about what rate they are going to reimburse for land acquisition. Also it will cause a big noise pollution to the population living around. Who is going to service the locomotives? They are very fine machines and it needs a totally different breed to run them.

  • Abhay Joshi says:

    Instead of spending this amount on Bullet Trains, why not spending on Airports at every 150 kms and connect the cities of India by Air. I am confident, Air journey would be more affordable than Bullet trains, which may have limitations, as only Mumbai to Ahmadabad travelers would be benefited. Spending on a ticket for Bullet train should cost not less than Rs.3000/-, whereas, Airfare would be similar or even cost lesser than a spending on Bullet train ticket. This will even be a boost to the Air industry which is not doing well in India. Even more employment opportunities would be created in the Air industry, already several thousands of Aeronautical Engineers are jobless or just doing any available jobs, can get good chance. Introducing Bullet trains would not be creating too many jobs in India, however Air industry can surely create.

  • Balachandran says:

    Capital Minds figures are totally misleading. A bullet train does not carry 1000 passengers in one go. Again 72 trips per day is too exaggerated to misguide. Neither, can any one expect that much of volume of traffic when there are other competing rather cheap modes of transport between Mumbai & Ahmadabad. Debt servicing cost will be minimum 150 crores a month. Add operating cost of 50 crores. So daily cost to run with out profit will be 7 crores. Assume you transport 10000 people in 30 trips a day (do not expect more than this volume) the cost per travel would around 5000. Add to this profit 15 % and sinking fund component. The ticket cost will go up further by Rs 1000. So where is the comparison with other competing modes. This will be used only by a few rich business men that too who wants to avoid air travel. This will again increase the travel cost as the transit volume reduces. Overall project wont be viable if not subsidized. This means this will eventually become a white elephant.

    • The japanese bullet trains carry 1300 passengers each, and there’s a train every 5 minutes. They achieve 78 trips in three hours.
      Debt servicing is lower – at 79 cr. per year for hte larger loan from Japan and the railway investment (equity) is 20K cr.

  • Jayadeep Purushothaman says:

    If there were no airplanes and airports in the country, this would have been a landmark event. High speed travel problem is solved by air travel, there is no real need for a high speed train in between. But this is a fantastic deal for Japan – they can sell their bullet train technology(that nobody wants) to a poor country. While China recently deployed many bullet trains, most of them are running empty, but then nobody can question the government in China. So this project is just a fancy one for Modi to show off than anything else.
    To your distasteful view that we should ignore the poor while doing development projects, you should first keep in mind that this is a democracy, not a party run or sultan run country.This is a government project and the government is spending significant money on this. It is not Ambani or Adani who is running the project for us – and I am sure they will not run this project because it is not a viable project. So the real question is what is the Government’s priority ? High speed travel is a solved problem in the country using airplanes.If spending for the poor is considered regressive in market economy, Govt. can put this money in developing metro rails in all cities and ensure that they are connected to the airports nearby. Or if the Govt. is concerned about the population growth, they can spend the money on education and health of the poor, which in turn will help control the population in the long run. Fertility rate in the country is worse than Muslim Bangladesh at the moment. So there are a plethora of social problems that Govt. can invest(in addition to the existing ones). The point is, if my home’s sewage lines are broken, I will fix that first before beautifying my living room, or if one my children is seriously sick, I will spend all my effort to get him/her well before I think about other things.
    So this project is one for the glory, doesn’t solve any problem for the rich or the poor.

  • Shan says:

    We need to do this and many more such projects. The reasoning is simple- you will have this ten years from now and then you’ll think “why didn’t we do this earlier”. For instance, had the top 20 cities in India started a metro project in 1995 we’d not need another smart cities project today. Our existing cities would be in a much more functional state.
    In a densely populated country like India, trains are a far better option than flights. That’s why Japan China and Europe have bullet trains and Australia and us don’t. We fall in the densely populated category and we need to invest right – in trains

  • Ugly Truth says:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sardar_Vallabhbhai_Patel_International_Airport
    In 2014-15, it handled 5.05 million passengers making it the eighth busiest airport in terms of passenger traffic in India.
    Passengers per day (5.5 m / 365) = 13835 ~ 14000
    Even assuming all flight passenger would travel by bullet train, and all passenger are Mumbai-Ahmedabd bound; how will you get 72000 passenger commute between Mumbai and Ahmedabad?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mumbai%E2%80%93Ahmedabad_high-speed_rail_corridor
    It is estimated that by 2023 around 40,000 passengers are expected to avail this service everyday and accordingly it would be a financially viable service.
    You are arguing like Bhakts 🙂