- Wealth PMS
As part of our special year-end piece, here is the performance of Sectoral Indices. Apologies as this is a little dated, but the numbers haven’t changed much from the 22nd of December. Wish you a great 2016!
The Nifty 50 has declined -6% over the past 357 days (Our period of comparison would be 31-Dec-14 to 22-Dec-15 – both days inclusive) the Sectoral Indices have declined by an avg. of -9.20% over the same period.
The year 2015 favored Pharma companies the most. Nifty Pharma Index ranked 1st with a growth of +5.90%. Increased number of inspections & approvals from worldwide regulatory agencies including US FDA, Indian & European Authorities has brought this sector into the limelight as the one to watch out for in 2016. However, since Mid Cap stocks are considered as wealth creators, it would be interesting to see as to how does this Index perform taking into account that all the 10 stocks constituting this Index are Large Cap stocks which are generally considered to be wealth preservers. (Hopefully, with the stern warning letters issued by US FDA to both Dr. Reddy’s and Sun Pharma, other Indian Pharma Companies would have a better process in place to avoid such instances in 2016 with a better planned approach)
The runners-up behind Nifty Pharma Index comes the Nifty Media Index with a growth of +5.40%. Having a good mix of companies including INOX and PVR both of whom are continuing their aggressive expansion plans, Nifty Media Index is the Index to watch out for in 2016 as both the companies continue to expand their bases to Tier 2 and Tier 3 markets along with improving their existing facilities across the upcoming metros. No sooner will these places become exclusive fun filled space for children with play seats, bean bags, cartoon character-themed interiors etc. (The Force has awakened)
Coming in at 3rd, 4th and 5th places are Indices with a decline of below 6% (why? because the Nifty 50 lost 6% over the same period and we consider Nifty/ Stock Markets as the Barometer of the Economy) came Nifty IT Index at – 1.08%, Nifty FMCG Index at – 1.10% and Nifty Auto Index at – 2.19%. There is nothing much to say other than the fact that we sympathize with these Indices as most of their stock price decline has been caused due to major Natural, Economic and Political issues. IT companies have forecasted a weaker Q3 due to the losses from the Chennai floods resulting in closing down of offices, payment of salary to staff, additional expenditure on recovering the capital assets. FMCG companies cannot do much other than launch new products and hope customers continue to be loyal to them. Maggi made a comeback in Q3 and every FMCG is running helter skelter to protect its products/ brand value from both Baba Ramdev’s Patanjali brand and the Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) (Well, let’s do it in filmy style and say – If Salman and Shah Rukh can make comeback movies, if Sanjay Dutt can come back from jail – it is not difficult for Indian FMCG companies to say – Picture Abhi Baaki Hai Mere Yaar!)
Moving on to Better than the Worst Supporting Indices for 2015. In 6th and 7th places we have the most talked about Indices of 2015 i.e. Nifty Financial Services Index at –6.82% and Nifty Bank Index at –10.61%. Nothing really helped, not the my name is Raghuram Rajan and I do what I do or because my middle name is Louise with the power to create ripples across the financial & political world.
Scraping the barrel : Now, let us move to the leader board bottom up for which we need to talk to the sorting hat... Nifty Metal Index leads with a decline of –33.05%, Nifty PSU Bank Index followed the lead of Nifty Metal Index comes second at –31.90% and in the 3rd last place comes Nifty Realty Index at –16.54%.
Aurobindo Pharma – a pharmaceutical manufacturing company headquartered in HITEC City, Hyderabad. The company manufactures generic pharmaceuticals and active pharmaceutical ingredients. Aurobindo exports to over 125 countries across the globe with more than 70% of its revenues derived out of international operations. Its marketing partners include AstraZeneca and Pfizer.
Founded in 1986 by Mr. P.V. Ramaprasad Reddy, Mr. K. Nityananda Reddy and a small group of highly committed professionals, the company commenced operations in 1988-89 with a single unit manufacturing Semi-Synthetic Penicillin (SSP) at Pondicherry.
In addition to being the market leader in Semi-Synthetic Penicillins, it has a presence in key therapeutic segments such as neurosciences, cardiovascular, anti-retrovirals, anti-diabetics, gastroenterology and cephalosporins, among others.
The stock has had an avg. daily turnover of 150 Cr with over 37% as Deliverable Quantity.
– Company has grown profits by 23% over 5 years
– Auro Pharma has a good return on equity (ROE) : 30%+ in three years
TV18 Broadcast – one of India’s leading television broadcast networks, housing multiple channels catering to specific regional and national audiences. TV18’s bouquet of news channels include marquee names such as CNBC-TV18, CNBC Awaaz, CNBC-TV18 Prime HD, CNN-IBN, IBN7 and IBN-Lokmat (a Marathi regional news channel in partnership with the Lokmat group).
TV18 also operates a joint venture with Viacom – Viacom18, which houses a portfolio of popular entertainment channels – Colors, Colors HD, Rishtey, MTV, MTV Indies, SONIC, Comedy Central, VH1, Nick, Nick Jr., Nick Teen and Viacom18 Motion Pictures, the group’s film entertainment business. It also has a joint venture with A+E Networks and manages and broadcasts the channel – History TV18, it has successfully acquired ETV which houses a bouquet of 10 regional news channels.
TV18 is on a recovery path after the Mukesh Ambani backed RIL buyout from Raghav Bahl and co.
The stock has had an avg. daily turnover of 14 Cr with over 50% as Deliverable Quantity meaning that 50/100 trader obtained the delivery of the stock.
– Company shows a 20 cr. profit in the Sep qtr, shows move from loss to profit
– Books being cleaned up by RIL, recovery phase
Mindtree – a multinational information technology and outsourcing company headquartered in Bengaluru, India and New Jersey. Founded in 1999, the company employs approximately 15,000+ employees with annual revenue of $600+ million.
The company deals in e-commerce, mobile applications, cloud computing, digital transformation, business intelligence, data analytics, testing, Agile software development, infrastructure, EAI and ERP, with more than 290 clients and offices in 14 countries. Its largest operations are in India and major markets are United States and Europe. The company was formed on 18 August 1999 by ten IT professionals, who formerly worked for Cambridge Technology Partners, Lucent Technologies, and Wipro.
The stock has had an avg. daily turnover of 27 Cr with over 45% as Deliverable Quantity meaning that 45/100 trader obtained the delivery of the stock.
Pros: (from Screener.in)
– Company is debt free.
– Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 28.88%
– Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 22.36%
– Promoter’s stake has decreased
Britannia Industries – 7th best stock in the Capital Mind Year End Large Cap Performers – A WADIA Enterprise, Britannia is an Indian food-products corporation based in Kolkata. It sells its Britannia and Tiger brands of biscuit throughout India. Britannia has an estimated market share of 38%. The Company’s principal activity is the manufacture and sale of biscuits, bread, rusk, cakes and dairy products.
Britannia is a leading food company in India with over Rs. 6000 Cr in revenues, delivering products in over 5 categories through 3.5 million retail outlets to more than half the Indian population. Britannia Dairy products contribute close to 10% of the company’s revenue.
The stock has had an avg. daily turnover of 52 Cr with over 60% as Deliverable Quantity meaning that 60/100 trader obtained the delivery of the stock.
Pros: (from Screener.in)
– Company is virtually debt free.
– Company has good consistent profit growth of 28.38% over 5 years
– Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 46.22%
– Company ha
s been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 35.68%
Ashok Leyland – 3rd best stock in the Capital Mind Year End Large Cap Performers – the flagship company of Hinduja Motors is an Indian automobile manufacturing company based in Chennai, India. Founded in 1948, it is the 2nd largest commercial vehicle manufacturer in India, 4th largest manufacturer of buses in the world and 16th largest manufacturer of trucks globally. Operating six plants, Ashok Leyland also makes spare parts and engines for industrial and marine applications.
The company sells about 60,000 odd vehicles on an annual basis. It makes both Medium Commercial Vehicle and Heavy Commercial Vehicle (M&HCV). It has many joint ventures with companies like Continental Corporation, Alteams in Finland and John Deere. As a part of its global strategy, AL acquired Czech Republic-based Avia’s truck business and has been named Avia Ashok Leyland Motors. Ashok Leyland is a market leader in the bus segment.
The stock has had an avg. daily turnover of 120 Cr with over 34% as Deliverable Quantity meaning that 34/100 trader obtained the delivery of the stock.
– Company has reduced debt.
– Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 36.06%
– Company has a low return on equity of -0.40% for last 3 years.
Bajaj Finance – 4th best stock in the Capital Mind Year End Large Cap Performers – BFL focuses on five broad categories: (i) Consumer Lending, (ii) SME Lending, (iii) Commercial Lending, (iv) Rural Lending, and (v) Fixed Deposits and Fee Based Product Distribution. Its net NPA at 0.45% is among the lowest in the business. This was despite portfolio quality pressures on account of the sharp slowdown in infrastructure activities, which affected two of its products, namely Construction Equipment Finance and Infrastructure Finance.
The stock has had an avg. daily turnover of 25 Cr with over 60% as Deliverable Quantity meaning that 60/100 trader obtained the delivery of the stock.
– Company has good consistent profit growth of 58.62% over 5 years
– Company has low-interest coverage ratio
IndusInd Bank – is a Mumbai based Indian new generation bank established in 1994. The bank offers commercial, transactional and electronic banking products and services. IndusInd Bank was inaugurated in April 1994 by then Union Finance Minister Manmohan Singh.
IndusInd Bank has 745 branches, and 1635 ATMs spread across 392 geographic locations of the country as of May 2015. It also has a representative office in London and another in Dubai. Mumbai has the maximum number of bank branches followed by New Delhi and Chennai. The bank has also proposed to double the branches count to 1200 by March 2017.
The stock has had an avg. daily turnover of 90 Cr with over 46% as Deliverable Quantity meaning that 46/100 trader obtained the delivery of the stock.
– Company has good consistent profit growth of 36.95% over 5 years
– Company has low interest coverage ratio
– Contingent liabilities of Rs.215702.02 Cr.
– Earnings include an other income of Rs.2814.38 Cr.
Godrej Properties – a real estate company with its head office in Mumbai, India. A subsidiary of Godrej Industries Ltd, the company was established in the year 1990 under the leadership of Adi Godrej. The company is currently developing landmark projects in 12 cities across India. Established in 1990, Godrej Properties Limited is the first real estate company to have ISO certification. With projects that span across the country, the company’s upcoming development covers over 8 million square meters. The group company Godrej Industries recently sold a significant stake in Godrej Properties to Kotak Mahindra Bank as it looks to merge a couple of the other group companies into Godrej Properties.
The stock has had an avg. daily turnover of 5.7 Cr with over 56% as Deliverable Quantity.
– Company is expected to give good quarter
– Company has good consistent profit growth of 55.73% over 5 years
– Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 22.71%
– Company has a low return on equity of 8.27% for last 3 years
IDBI Bank – an Indian government-owned financial service company, headquartered in Mumbai, India. It was established in 1964 by an Act of Parliament to provide credit and other financial facilities for the development of the fledgling Indian industry.
It is currently 10th largest development bank in the world in terms of reach, with 3000 ATMs, 1717 branches. It is one of 27 commercial banks owned by the Government of India. The Bank has an aggregate balance sheet size of INR 3.56 trillion as on 31-Mar-15. IDBI Bank’s operations during the financial year ended March 31, 2015 resulted in a net profit of Rs. 837 crore.
The stock has had an avg. daily turnover of 40 Cr with over 20% as Deliverable Quantity.
– Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 19.27%
– Company has low-interest coverage ratio
– Company has a low return on equity of 6.33% for last 3 years.
– Contingent liabilities of Rs.246073.24 Cr.
Welspun Corporation – the second largest manufacturer of large diameter pipes in the world based in Mumbai. It is a flagship company of the $3 billion (₹129 billion) Welspun Group.
The company owns Pipe Mills in Dahej, Anjar & Mandya. Dahej and Anjar locations host coating facilities as well. The Company’s Anjar complex also hosts Hot Induction bending (HIB) units and Plate cum Coil Rolling Mill (PCMD).
The stock has had an avg. daily turnover of 9 Cr with over 44% as Deliverable Quantity.
– Company has reduced debt
– Company is expected to give good quarter
– Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 18.55%.
– The company has delivered a poor growth of 2.79% over past five years.
– Company has a low return on equity of -1.18% for last 3 years.
– Contingent liabilities of Rs. 2483.61 Cr.
Note: For all the charts pasted above, the red line graph represents the Outlier stock; the black line graph represents the Nifty 50 and the Purple line graph represents the specific Index. All numbers represented here have been sourced from National Stock Exchange and Screener.in. Stock prices for 31-Dec-14 and 22-Dec-15 are based on closing prices for the respective trading day.
Disclosure: Capital Mind may have recommended these stocks as part of its portfolios, and the authors at Capital Mind may own these stocks in their personal/family accounts.
Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice and should not be construed as such. Please do not take trading decisions based solely on the matter above; if you do, it is entirely at your own risk without any liability to Capital Mind. This is educational or informational matter only, and is provided as an opinion.
Disclosure: The authors at Capital Mind have positions in the market and some of them may support or contradict the material given above, or may involve a direction derived from independent analysis.