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Our Report Card of Last Year's Diwali Predictions: Bad Year, Good Predictions

Last year we predicted a few items in our annual Diwali Prediction post. A quick look at how we have done:

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To give you an idea and a quick summary:

Capital Mind Has Grown

We have two excellently running products (Capital Mind Premium and Options With AP). We will soon release our Insider Product for sale, and we have a running Monthly Auto Sales report as well – all of which is part of Capital Mind Premium. We have our awesome new data platform: Snap! Where we have a lot of our algorithms and signals coded, with great stock and FnO charts, and of course, our proprietary MA20 indicators as well. Our team is now six and growing, and the awesome people who are subscribed to Capital Mind Premium have great conversations on our Slack channel.

Things are good, and they should get better next year, but let’s not tell you about them – let’s show you.

We Predicted a Rise and then a Mini Crash, and It Kinda Sorta Happened

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And the Nifty is down about 3% since the last Diwali.

NPAs are Up, Banks Are Down

We spoke of how banks would have to take the hit and NPAs have increased substantially. We saw GMR’s tollway default. Two L&T Projects defaulted. Amtek Auto defaulted. Apparently, even the government kinda-sorta defaulted! NPAs have risen and this is now a major concern going forward.

FIIs are Exiting

After investing a lot of money in the early part of 2015, Foreign Investors have started to exit.

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The US Rate Hike Drama…

…still continues. Will they? Won’t they? Will they now? Oh, sell everything! Wait, Yellen smiled.Maybe she means she won’t cut rates. Buy it all back! No wait that wasn’t a smile, that was her grimacing at a question by Congress. Sell again!

This goes on. For the rest of your attention span, this will continue.

The RBI Allowed New Banks

RBI allowed 11 new payment banks this year. And 10 new “small” banks. Plus, we have IDFC bank and Bandhan bank that are operational.

The Rest

The Rupee remains under pressure at 66.3 right now. Rates fell about 1.25% ending with a dramatic drop of 0.50% by the RBI in September. There were no major reforms, at least nothing so noteworthy we have to put it up here.

And yes, prices fluctuated 🙂

 

What About Next Year?

That post is coming soon. We presented a report card, and in our own opinion, the number of green pixels outnumbers the number of red pixels, so we won. Or, we lived to predict another day, and that day is tomorrow. More soon!

(And Have a Happy Diwali! Please be good and strong and healthy in the coming year.)

  • kiran says:

    Awesome!! Hi Deepak, great post and remarkable predictions 🙂 Waiting to see your next predictions…always fun to read predictions 😉
    Some of the offerings you referred here look very interesting, somehow missed them. Is it possible to have a page dedicated to what all products/offerings captialmind provides? (or you have one?) Options with AP looks interesting, but can you also provide the references as to where to learn/understand about Options for novices and a readme kind of thing for every offering?
    BTW, wishing you a great Diwali and the very best to Capitalmind 🙂

  • girish says:

    great job. a lot of work has happened in the last year, that too with such a small team. keep it up. one slightly off topic question. how do you manage to get motivated and focus on work in times like these where bad news all around. because your own portfolio will be down and portfolio of your subscribes also will be down. one can talk about long term etc but sharp corrections will definitely have an impact. if one is a market participant, it will have an impact on his primary job. (salaried or entrepreneur). i would love to hear your views.

  • dhadiga says:

    Dear Deepak,
    I am layman with 10 lacks and medium risk profile who just want to know the present value of that 10 lack, if i been a part of capital mind last year!!
    kindly enlighten.