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On Slack: Saudi meltdown, Longmay 100,000, Monetary policy, CARE downgrades and more, at Capital Mind

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The Slack Discussions

The Slack group at Capital Mind Premium has been extremely active and if you haven’t been there, pop us a note by replying to this email. (If you’re a trial member this probably sound like Greek to you; it will be available when you sign up!)

A brief summary of some of the interesting things discussed there in the last few days:

#general: Iran Plans to Increase Oil Export by 500,000 Barrels per Day by December

Iran expects to increase its oil exports by 500,000 barrels a day by the end of November or early December with deliveries to Asian countries, the head of the National Iranian Oil Company said. Iranian oil imports to Asian countries, such as China and South Korea, which had expressed their interest in the Iranian oil supplies, will begin sooner than to the Western, Ali Kardor was cited by The Wall Street Journal.

http://sputniknews.com/business/20150924/1027495325.html#ixzz3n0kCynFR

#stocks: Lenders wary of Videocon debt conversion plan

Videocon Industries, which has a debt burden of close to Rs 75,000 crore, has sought shareholders’ approval to convert a part of its debt into equity, a move that has raised eyebrows among lenders.  A person aware of the development said the company has called for an extraordinary general meeting (EGM) on October 12 to seek shareholders’ consent. However, it has not specified the extent of loan that could be converted into equity

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/49100922.cms?from=mdr&utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

#general: Adani set to sign deal with L&T to manage Kattupalli port

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd (APSEZ), India’s biggest port operating firm, is set to sign an agreement with Larsen and Toubro Ltd (L&T) in the next few days to take over operation and management (O&M) of the Kattupalli port at Ennore near Chennai, as both the firms work on different strategies to drive growth.

http://www.livemint.com/Companies/3GCOFcsm6XPRxyVN2uRz7O/Adani-set-to-sign-deal-with-LT-to-manage-Kattupalli-port.html

#stocks: Government’s holding in IDBI Bank to be reduced to 49% 

The government has firmed up plans to bring down its holding in IDBI Bank to 49 per cent, marking a big bang start to its commitment to reform state-run banks. The department of financial services in the finance ministry is working on the details of the proposal that could be considered shortly.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/49110400.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

#fixed-income: Jaypee Infratech downgraded again – Revised from CARE BB to CARE D

The revision in the ratings of the bank facilities and instruments of Jaypee Infratech Limited (JIL) takes into account delay in servicing of debt obligations by the company due to its weak liquidity position.

http://www.careratings.com/upload/CompanyFiles/PR/JAYPEE%20INFRATECH%20LIMITED-09-25-2015.pdf

#general: Saudi collapse inevitable?

We just got the first significant sign that Saudi Arabia is hurting for cash –http://www.businessinsider.in/We-just-got-the-first-significant-sign-that-Saudi-Arabia-is-hurting-for-cash/articleshow/49138041.cms

Saudi Arabia Withdrew Billions from Markets, Estimates Show –http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-28/saudi-arabia-has-withdrawn-billions-from-markets-estimates-show

The collapse of Saudi Arabia is inevitable – http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/collapse-saudi-arabia-inevitable-1895380679

#general: The “Hard-Landing” Has Arrived: Chinese Coal Company Fires 100,000

The global commodity collapse is finally starting to take its toll on what China truly cares about: the employment of the tens of millions of currently employed and soon to be unemployed workers.

On Friday, in a move that would make even Hewlett-Packard’s Meg Whitman blush, Harbin-based Heilongjiang Longmay Mining Holding Group, or Longmay Group, the biggest met coal miner in northeast China which has been struggling to reduce massive losses in recent months as a result of the commodity collapse, just confirmed China’s “hard-landing” has arrived when it announced on its website it would cut 100,000 jobs or 40% of its entire 240,000-strong labor force.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-27/chinas-hard-landing-has-arrived-chinese-coal-company-fires-100000

#general: October should mark a turnaround in Indian stock market: Porinju Veliyath

Porinju Veliyath, MD & Portfolio Manager at Equity Intelligence India, says though there has been a lot of talk on D-Street about the global headwinds and their repercussions, many of them actually have positive vibes for India.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/interviews/october-should-mark-a-turnaround-in-indian-stock-market-porinju-veliyath/articleshow/49134472.cms

#stocks: Should you fear a ‘Glencore’ moment?

Experts are beginning to warn of the dire financial impact across the mining and metals space if Glencore, one of the world’s largest resource companies, is unable to control its skyrocketing debt load.

A 29 percent share price crash in the Anglo–Swiss commodity giant on Monday highlighted fears about its financial health, with a widely-circulated note from Investec pointing to a debt base well above peers and a lower-margin asset base. Investec warned of a scenario in which earnings could collapse entirely as the firm works purely to repay debt, which would eliminate all shareholder value.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/28/glencore-may-spark-a-lehman-moment-for-miners.html

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/stock-markets/european-stock-market-selloff-gathers-pace-glencore-halts-slide/article7702130.ece

#macronomics: Government to reassess GDP forecast for this fiscal: FM Arun Jaitley

With RBI lowering the growth forecast to 7.4% for the current fiscal, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on Tuesday said the government will reassess its GDP projections.

“It is not necessary for us to make our own parallel judgement at this stage. We will reassess the situation,” he said after the Reserve Bank announced its fourth bi-monthly monetary policy review

http://www.dnaindia.com/money/report-government-to-reassess-gdp-forecast-for-this-fiscal-fm-arun-jaitley-2129891 

#backtoschool:

High Probability Credit Spreads – Using Linear Regression Curveshttp://gekkoquant.com/2013/09/29/high-probability-credit-spreads-using-linear-regression-curves/

Can A Stock Market Crash Be Good For You?http://www.ishafoundation.org/blog/lifestyle/dna-of-success/can-stock-market-crash-be-good/

Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) Charts – Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) Chartshttp://stockcharts.com/docs/doku.php?id=other-tools:rrg-charts

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Disclaimer

Nothing in this newsletter is financial advice and should not be construed as such. Please do not take trading decisions based solely on the matter above; if you do, it is entirely at your own risk without any liability to Capital Mind. This is educational or informational matter only, and is provided as an opinion. 

Disclosure: The authors at Capital Mind have positions in the market and some of them may support or contradict the material given above, or may involve a direction derived from independent analysis.

 

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