Capitalmind
Capitalmind
Actionable insights on equities, fixed-income, macros and personal finance Start 14-Days Free Trial
Actionable investing insights Get Free Trial
Economy

IIP at 4.22% But Big Past Revisions Make It Unreliable

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for July 2015 moved up 4.22% from a year ago. Even last month’s numbers were revised upwards to 4.36% (from 3.78%) and April’s numbers were revised down to 3.01% (the first reported number was 4.05%). So it’s all a little complicated.

image

The Growth has come from manufacturing (which is, in any case, 75% of the index)

image

And the use-based indexes show a drop in consumer non-durables below 0%, a continued upmove in durables (after a horrible year last year) and a return to double digit growth for capital goods:

image

Our View

We think this is okay. 4% is not much but hopefully the next few months will be better. The drop in consumer durables is a worry, but a lot of the other businesses have picked up. The big past revisions mean we cannot easily trust this data, so use pinches of salt appropriately.

Like our content? Join Capitalmind Premium.

  • Equity, fixed income, macro and personal finance research
  • Model equity and fixed-income portfolios
  • Exclusive apps, tutorials, and member community
Subscribe Now Or start with a free-trial