- Wealth PMS
Inflation for July 2015 has come in at a new all time low of just 3.78%.
Some of this is indeed expected, as last year the index went sharply up, till September 2014, before the crude fall came and killed all elements of inflation in India.
Both Urban and Rural Inflation are down substantially:
Apparently, food inflation has fallen tremendously:
Core Inflation – the move of the index minus food and fuel – has fallen too.
We believe that:
Note that the China devaluation of the Yuan does change a few things. The RBI is looking more comfortable with the 64 handle on the USDINR and we are seeing our competitive neighbours (Indonesia, specially) see much higher devaluation. The impact of a weaker rupee is: inflation. And that, plus the US Fed Rate issue, may just mean your friendly neighbourhood rate hike may neither be friendly or in the neighbourhood.
To subscribe to new posts by email, once a day, delivered to your Inbox:
Also, do check out Capital Mind Premium , where we provide high quality analysis on macro, fixed income and stocks. Also see our portfolio which has given stellar returns in our year, trade by trade as we progress. Take a 30-day trial: