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Charts & Analysis

Exports and Non-Oil Imports Drop as Trade Remains Treacherously Low in May 2015

India’s trade statistics showed:

a) A trade deficit of $10.4 billion that’s about flat from the previous month

b) a 16% drop in imports and a 20% drop in exports (whoa).

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Worrisome: Non oil imports also drop

Crude oil imports were lower than last year due to the drop in crude. But we saw a fall in Non oil imports. Note that Gold imports went up, so obviously its the other stuff that dropped.

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Oil imports have ticked up from the previous month, but as you can see, non-oil imports have fallen to where they have contracted from a year earlier.

Tragic: Total Trade drops 18%

While the “flat” deficit is probably good news, it’s not really good that we’re now trading substantially lower than a year ago. As much as 18% below last year’s levels (imports+exports).

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(Feb was low, but then it had only 28 days). May with 31 days has no such excuse.

Our View

Terrible news. Lower non-oil imports (-2%) and much lower exports (-20%) is not a good thing for the economy at all.

  • Suman says:

    World is in a Japan style stagnation. No amount of currency printing will strengthen the economy. Multi decade long credit bubble is coming to an end.

  • durgesh.sri says:

    Agree that this is a bad news but it’ll be interesting to see these statistics in INR. In 2011 USD was 40+ and now it is 60+. I understand that mostly the trade is done in USD but I’m looking to remove the currency fluctuation bias to see how much the export/import has gone in INR and apply local inflation on it.