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Charts & Analysis

Exports and Non-Oil Imports Drop as Trade Remains Treacherously Low in May 2015

India’s trade statistics showed:

a) A trade deficit of $10.4 billion that’s about flat from the previous month

b) a 16% drop in imports and a 20% drop in exports (whoa).



Worrisome: Non oil imports also drop

Crude oil imports were lower than last year due to the drop in crude. But we saw a fall in Non oil imports. Note that Gold imports went up, so obviously its the other stuff that dropped.


Oil imports have ticked up from the previous month, but as you can see, non-oil imports have fallen to where they have contracted from a year earlier.

Tragic: Total Trade drops 18%

While the “flat” deficit is probably good news, it’s not really good that we’re now trading substantially lower than a year ago. As much as 18% below last year’s levels (imports+exports).


(Feb was low, but then it had only 28 days). May with 31 days has no such excuse.

Our View

Terrible news. Lower non-oil imports (-2%) and much lower exports (-20%) is not a good thing for the economy at all.

  • Suman says:

    World is in a Japan style stagnation. No amount of currency printing will strengthen the economy. Multi decade long credit bubble is coming to an end.

  • durgesh.sri says:

    Agree that this is a bad news but it’ll be interesting to see these statistics in INR. In 2011 USD was 40+ and now it is 60+. I understand that mostly the trade is done in USD but I’m looking to remove the currency fluctuation bias to see how much the export/import has gone in INR and apply local inflation on it.