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Charts & Analysis

Jan and Feb Positive For Stocks: What Does March Look Like, Historically?

The Nifty went up 1.1% in Feb 2015, taking the 2015 return to 7.5%. With two consecutive months of gains, this looks like a good month. March has a negative average, and a negative median return (a new measure we add this month).

If you look at the years in which Jan and Feb have been positive, what does March Look Like?

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In the seven instances (since 1994) that we have seen positive returns in Jan + Feb, we have:

  • Five negative returns (from -1.1% to -12.8%)
  • Two positive returns (+10.7% and +9.9%)

Just seven points don’t make for any useful statistics. But what they’re saying is: if March is positive, it’s blockbuster; but it’s more likely to be negative.

Note: Don’t draw this inference as a recommendation – with just seven past instances, you are quite likely to be wrong.

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  • Nitin says:

    March is the typical month where investors book their short term losses…Of all the 3 months with negative returns, this one has lowest SD..So sub-5% returns are more of less certain..
    By the way as per Mark Twain October is the worst month to speculate…others are Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Nov, Dec
    I would strike out Dec from the list based on the historical prices.