Capitalmind
Capitalmind
Actionable insights on equities, fixed-income, macros and personal finance Start 14-Days Free Trial
Actionable investing insights Get Free Trial
Economy

IIP for Dec at an Abysmal +1.7% Gives Us Four Years of Nothingness

India’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for December 2014 came in at +1.7%, which continues the abysmal numbers in the recent past.

At 182, the IIP is at the same level as it was in December 2011, which means that as a country our industrial production numbers just have not moved.

image

If you look at the last two months, you could ask: What is Deepak smoking? Wasn’t last month fantastic at +3.91%? (+3.8% was revised upwards)

Well, no. Because last month and the month earlier were all screwed up because of Diwali. I explained this in my post last month. In short, the fact is that Diwali was in October in 2014, but in November is 2013. It’s also the month factories have to give a lot of holidays. So having it in different months in two years will show screwed up figures on year on year growth.

Now, as you can see, the data evens out and December was back to good old bad numbers.

The Sectors

Manufacturing continues to suck in terms of growth. Mining too, has moderated in growth and so has electricity production.

image

The Use-Based Sectors

There’s a decent recovery in Consumer Goods and within that, it’s the Consumer Durables that have staged a comeback. But that’s just the base effect. It’s been so bad that at some point year on year growth would at the very least stagnate.

image

Our View: This is weak. Very weak. The economic slowdown is real. We expect this will only make markets go up on the expectation that RBI will cut rates further. Markets hardly seem to go down too much nowadays, no matter how solid the reason. If data is bad, RBI will rescue us. If data is good, look, data is good.

divider

Subscribe to Capital Mind:

To subscribe to new posts by email, once a day, delivered to your Inbox:

[wysija_form id=”1″]

 

Also, do check out Capital Mind Premium, where we provide high
quality analysis on macro, fixed income and stocks. Also see our
portfolio which has given stellar returns in our year, trade by trade
as we progress. Take a 30-day trial:

[wysija_form id=”2″]

  • Nishit says:

    How much this you think has to do with the new government’s policy (or lack of it) or is this just part of global economy slowdown?

  • Shash says:

    Come on bro, GDP is at 7.5%, all is fixed.

  • Deep says:

    Hmm..clearly shows manufacturings share of GDP is contracting.Ironically agriculture is looking better than Industry.So were the pundits wrong in suggesting moving labour to from agriculture to Industry?Strong demand of fruits.vegie and high protein food seems to be the categories which is powering agriculture.My own take is the average Indian is more likely spend his disposable income on higher quality of food,education and other experiential activities like malls,tourism than on consuming more industial goods.

  • Px says:

    Compared to say China or SE asia how competitive are we on the labor front ?
    Is this the result of nrega and congress govts efforts to increase wages , which most often than not results in increasing population and reduces employment .