- Wealth PMS
The RBI’s back to buying dollars by the truckload. Forex reserves have been going up substantially.
The RBI has over $322 bn of cash reserves, and then another $13 billion from forwards (it may even be higher since the forward exposure number is from November).
This is the highest ever forex reserve we have ever held.
The RBI has not just bought in the spot market this (financial) year, it’s bought a truckload in the forward market as well, totally over $66 billion:
And the difference this time is that the RBI has managed to do this without stoking inflation. With every purchase of dollars, the RBI has sold government bonds. To buy dollars they have to print rupees which could introduce inflation. But when they sell government bonds, they get rupees back, which takes them out of circulation.
The red shaded areas are when RBI let its balance sheet grow insanely. In the 2009 to 2013 zone, they bought both Forex and Government bonds, expanding money supply very rapidly.
It’s only since Sep 2013 that our balance sheet has seen a slower growth because of the simultaneous bond sales and forex purchases. (Currently the balance sheet has grown at 4% per year). A low balance sheet growth controls inflation.
This is the brilliance of the RBI this time. Although I don’t like the fact that they accumulate forex reserves instead of making the rupee free, this is the second best approach to forex management.
The large amount of dollar buying probably coincides with massive foreign investor interest in January. Interestingly the interest in bonds is so high that the RBI’s bond sales are also not causing any damange to the bond market.
The monetary battle in the world markets just heated up with the Euro and Yen fighting to reach the bottom; the Ruble and Chinese Yuan are getting to be free. The next battle isn’t going to be one of forex reserves, it will be the rise of the emerging currencies. In that battle, forex reserves might actually be an impediment.
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