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Economy

The Last Chart of 2014: That Rupee Goes Weak (Or, the Dollar Goes Strong?) Happy New Year!

The Indian Rupee in 2014 has seen an interesting ride. Starting out at Rs. 62 to a dollar, the rupee rose to around Rs. 58 in June. Since then, however, we have seen a major uptrend in the dollar, taking the rupee to end at 63.33 on the last day of the year. (This is the RBI locked rate at 12 noon; the actual last traded number is a stronger 63.03)

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The year was a flip flop as the USDINR crossed below it’s 200 day moving average and then went above it again.

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Much of the year was about a stronger dollar really. The Rupee in comparison with other currencies has been a different thing altogether:

image 2015 will see so much action. Will we be another Russia whose currency went from 30 to 80 and then back to 50? Or will we be more stable and rejoice with the lower crude prices and gold imports?

Our answers will be in international events. Greece seems to have opened up a salvo for January. There’s a US interest rate hike coming. There’s potentially more of the crude oil drama left in store. And to top it all, India’s internal issues including a very strange fiscal deficit situation means our “acche din” might not be that acche (good) for the rupee. Whatever happens, you can be sure it won’t be a dull year!

Happy New Year folks. Have a great eve, and a fabulous 12 months ahead. Don’t forget to check in, Capital Mind will keep you updated on the best and worst of everything, even more than we used to. Wish us luck, and we wish you prosperity and happiness for 2015!

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