This has been the week with the biggest Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) outflows in 2014.
At Capital Mind, we like to look at outliers – and FII flows are a key point of focus. Foreign investor inflows are the biggest reason why our stocks have moved as much as they have. And look what happened in a week that was more or less “flat” on the Nifty:
(Data from SEBI. Adjusted for dates – SEBI gives us yesterday’s data today. Assumed –668 cr. for 19/12/2014 as that data will only officially come on Monday 22nd., but we have provisional data from the BSE/NSE)
Note that December flows are strangely twisted. There’s one BIG day, the 8th of December.
This is the day the Infosys founders sold their stake worth 6500 cr., which was gobbled up by FIIs. We shouldn’t ignore that, of course, but it does mean that the spike was probably a one-timer, and regular flows were going south.
While the month isn’t over yet, here’s 2014 for you on a monthly basis:
(Remember, these are purely equity flows, not debt). Further, this includes that 4,000+ cr. figure on the Infosys sale day, without which this would also have been the worst month of 2014.
Considering continuous days of FII selling, this is now nine consecutive negative days the longest continuous negative streak in 2014. Before this, the maximum continuous selling streak was just five days!
(On the buying front, FIIs have bought as much as 20 consecutive days)
FII flows have been very relevant and till now there has been no cause for concern. But what’s weird is: the last two days should have been the Yellen rally, the Santa move, which took US markets up 5%. Indian markets too are up 3%, but FIIs have been sellers, not buyers.
If this is an indicator, our markets just over-reacted. We’re going to see some serious pressure on both the rupee and the stock markets.
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