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Charts & Analysis

September Flat for Market as We Step Into The Worst Month for Equities, On Average

The "flat" month of September keeps 2014 returns at 26%, but we are heading into what is the worst month of the year, on average. October has an average return of -1% on the Nifty, but the Standard Deviation is WIDE (9.3%).

Last year, though, we saw a massive turn in October as the index went up nearly 10%. Will we see a different October in 2014?

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The Sensex, too, for continuity.

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The YTD Return, till September, is the highest since 2009.

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But we’re expecting a rough October. Our 2014 return could end up considerably lower, if the macro data is to be believed.

  • Amit Agarwal says:

    Hi Deepak,
    Very Very nice statistics and analysis and as some one rightly said “history repeats itself” it’s useful to look back for what happened in the past. I am also eagerly waiting for correction which hasen’t happened since past 7 consecutive months and we never had back to back gains for 7 months in a row in last 15 years or so. That makes me little skeptical in going full hog short on the market as unusual things are happening in the market these days. Falling commodity prices are also good for the companies in SENSEX and Nifty. So I doubt that market will oblige us with any meaningful correction on headline indices. Infact I will not be surprised if market close positive in October also. Let’s see.

  • Amit Agarwal says:

    As explained in my comment above, both Nifty and Sensex made new highs in October inspite of back to back 7 months of higher closing high. Indian Markets witnessed highest ever turnover on 30th Oct of over 10 lakh crores and shorts were brutally made to shed blood. There were hardly any speculative longs as people were largely negative in october. This is not an easy market to make money.