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Charts & Analysis

Trade Deficit in April 2014 at $10bn, Total Trade Falls 7%

India’s trade data for April 2014 shows a continuing low trade deficit. With Exports at $25.6 billion (+5.3%) and imports at $35.7 billion (-15%) the trade deficit is just $10 billion.


Export and imports seem to now be going the right direction after creating a scare last month (when imports picked up but export growth fell).


The problem of course is that total trade itself is declining:


This can be explained with the fall in gold imports due to restrictions introduced after June last year. Last April saw record gold imports when gold prices fell ; India imported $7.5 billion of gold and silver in April 2013 alone! (Interestingly, in that post, I was long gold. I now am no longer long the shiny metal.)

However the fact remains that our total trade has been more or less stagnant (in dollar terms) since 2012.

These charts will be lost in the rumours of exit poll result leaks flood the markets, but let’s hope someone’s watching!

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