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Commentary

Weekly Summary: WPI, Black Money, SIP Returns

In the last week at CapitalMind:

  • The Wholesale Price Index Can’t Be Trusted

    The wholesale price index (WPI) comes to you every month, and we tend to analyse its implications based on change from last year, or last month, or whatever. But the index collection mechanism has its problems, with a very large …

    • Killer Jeans But Not That Killer a Company

      I comment at Fundoo Professor’s Blog Post on Kewal Kiran Clothing: (First, an intro. Kewal Kiran makes Killer Jeans. This is an interesting business, priced at Rs. 806. They make around Rs. 43 per share, 52 cr. PAT and 315 …

      • NSEL: Show Cause Notices, Empty Warehouses and We-Want-That-Gold

        The Forward Markets Commission (FMC) has issued a show-cause notice to Jignesh Shah and FT (Finantech), asking them to defend their “fit-and-proper” status as directors in MCX. They get two whole weeks to reply. The charges are of lack of …

        • Tech: ITC and RCOM Show Short Entries in Strategy. Tata Steel Override Fails.

          ITC and RCOM show interesting entries (both short) in the MACD+Bollinger Reject Trades. This is a strategy with a number of winning recent trades, and follows a discretionary pattern recognition system where the upper or lower bollinger band is traversed, …

          • September PMI at Lowest in 4.5 Years

            India’s Purchasing Managers Index (by HSBC/Markit) has come in at low levels in September. Manufacturing PMI comes in at 49.6, marginally up from 48.5 in August, but is still below the 50 mark, indicating contraction. The Services PMI (the other …

            • Suckered: The Case of Gujarat NRE Coke and The We-Wont-Tell-You Edition of Accounting

              Gujarat NRE Coke is in an accounting mess. Businessworld writes that the company’s Australian subsidiary, Gujarat NRE Coking Coal, listed on the Australian Stock Exchange, is in serious trouble. Grant Thornton, who audits the Australian subsidiary, has said they have …

              • Video: How to Generate Black Money?

                Devangshu Datta has a great presentation on how to create black money: DD is a good friend and a great guy – and what he’s saying is clear. Yes, there is black money but it’s not “them” that generate it. …

                • An Analysis of SIP Returns on the Sensex for 23 years

                  I have monthly Sensex data since 1978 (the early part of it was reconstructed, since the Sensex only came to being in the mid-80s). So if you invested in the Sensex every month, how would your returns be? Since you …

                  • MSF Borrowing Goes Back Up, a Strange Repo Dip

                    Figures for the Marginal Standing Facility show that MSF borrowing has gone back up to 91,000 crores, a number larger than the 1% of NDTL (Total Deposits) that RBI is comfortable with. The actual limit is 2%, so we’re safe …

                    • Chart: Nifty Returns Till September, Over the Years

                      Upto September, the Nifty has returned -2.9%, staying a negative year again. How has 2013 been, though, compared to the others? A quick comparison of till-September returns shows that 2010 isn’t by any means an abnormal year; in fact, it’s …

                      • Tech: TataSteel and TCS Do Their Magic, SesaGoa Shows Potential Loss

                        The Technical Setup (Bollinger Reject + MACD) has now worked its magic with Tata Steel , after nearly hitting its stop loss: The trade was at 289, rolled over into a October future at a Rs. 3 premium (so effectively …

                        • September 2013 at Capital Mind – Monthly Summary

                          In a new format, we introduce the Capital Mind Monthly Archive. So if you took a month off, you can quickly look at what we’ve been writing about at Capital Mind. Macro and Markets How Have Stocks Done In a …

                          • NSEL News: FIR Filed, Conflict of Interest, Exit from F&O

                            CBI to probe NSEL , says Chidambaram. And the cops have filed an FIR . The noose is tightening around the Jignesh Shah empire, The Grant Thornton Forensic Audit reveals interesting things. Turns out Shalini, wife of Anjani Sinha (ex-CEO) …

                            • The Rajan Month Takes Us +6% But Ends on a Depressing Note

                              September 2013 was when Raghuram Rajan became the RBI governor and that gave markets a high. However, on the last day of the month, markets retreated 1.7%, taking the 10% gains down to 6.1%, and the 6,000 mark away from …

                              • How Have Stocks Done In a Month of High Carry?

                                Last week was the Futures and Options expiry and something strange happened. The Nifty October Future – 1 month away – was at a 1.1% premium to the Nifty, something that hasn’t happened too often. This is effectively a 13% …

                                • The US Government Shutdown Drama

                                  Panic! The US Government Might Shut Down! The game is over! Or so we will hear over the next two days. The concept: The US House of Congress (Lower house) has decided to extend government funding only if Obamacare – …

                                  • Gold Returns Adjusted for Inflation Since 2007 are Stellar, PPF Not So Much

                                    Continuing the series on adjusting things for inflation , readers complained that hey, I wasn’t really playing fair talking about just the Nifty. How about the Public Provident Fund ? PPF is where you can put your money and interest …