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Charts & Analysis

Exports Up 11%, Imports Down 18%, Best Monthly Trade Balance in 2 years

The Trade Balance came in at just $6.8 billion for the month of September 2013. This is the lowest in two years.

Imports were down 18% from Sep 2012, from $42 bn to $34.4 bn though while exports grew over 11%. Remember, the currency has depreciated over 10% (from 55 in August 2012 to about 61 today).

Imports and Exports in India

You can see the import growth falling off a cliff while exports rise:

Growth in Trade

And the trade balance, both in rupees and dollars, till September. While in dollar terms things look good, it’s not yet showing that much of an impact in rupees (the rupee has fallen though, like I said above):

Trade balance Cumulative

And finally, oil imports remain steady while non-oil goes low:

oil and non oil imports

This is quite good for the economy as the current account deficit will narrow. Service export data will come in later in the year, and that should be strong as well.

Markets have rejoiced, with the Nifty closing above 6,000 in the gazillionth time. Will it, this time, just keep going up?

  • TrinityCapital says:

    Dear Deepak,
    I am confused looking at the charts in your post. In the first chart the gold color bars show that there is improvement in monthly trade balance since May 2013 (-20 billion to -6 billion). However, in the third chart (titled Trade Balance in $ millions) the green color histogram shows that monthly trade balance is worsening since May 2013.
    May be I am missing something. Can you please explain?

  • Px says:

    What do u think is the effect of 1. lag effect of policy 2. the clampdown on gold imports and the measures by Rajan ? All said is this trend sustainable ?