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Commentary

Markets Down 3%, Rupee Past 68. Fears of Syria, Or Something Else?

This is just a heads up. The fear is that something is happening in Syria. But these are rumours and the following could be an overreaction. Russia supposedly detected missiles in the Mediterranean, however this is like saying that someone sighted a non-potholed road in Bangalore – unlikely, but we all know they could exist.

The rupee has just gone from the last close of Rs. 66.1 to a dollar to over Rs. 68.

The Nifty has crashed over 3%, with banks down over 5%.

Nifty chart intraday

Gold and oil haven’t, for the most part. Brent Crude is still at 114, and Gold still under $1400. This probably means it isn’t Syria. So what is it? We’ll know soon. Prices come first, everything else, later.

This could be “blood on the streets” and thus, a buying opportunity, or an early indication of weakness. While I wouldn’t recommend jumping in to buy, it’s useful to make a strategy saying: If the index falls below 5,000 I might want to buy stocks A, B and C. I’ll post my list when that happens.

  • Punit says:

    Curious to see your go-to list if lets say Nifty crashes to 4600 level.

  • sandeep says:

    Hi Deepak,
    Any insight into what kind of money will flow from the Vodafone Verizon deal into Piramal? PEL hit all time high yesterday and lost almost all gains today. I was actually expecting it to rise more today based on the inflows from the Verizon deal. I thought yesterday’s rise was tied to that deal…

  • Murty says:

    Hi Deepak,
    Why Reliance sold 3Lakh USD yesterday, and why the dollar is fluctuationg wild?

  • Isitpossible says:

    Isn’t it obvious by now that BULL market which started in early 2012 is over and we are entering a BEAR market!!! Which means it is a fair possibility that market may fall to 4600 level (possibly by 2014 elections), ofcourse NOT in straight line but in zig-zag manner.
    On what basis are we entering BEAR market?
    Check below link which might provide better insight.
    http://mysensex.weebly.com/sensex-analysis-part-iiia—nifty-chart.html
    It might be better to stay in cash rather than get sucked into equities assuming the sell-off is done unless you are a swing trader. If overall market is going down then even best companies cannot survive the sell-off…
    On the other hand for position traders, the best bet is to look for opportunities to enter commodities funds or ETFs.

  • Shankar says:

    Deepak,
    Thanks for the active posts. Please post about the curious case of the Public sector banks. Do all of them deserve such low valuations?

  • Vikas says:

    Hi,
    Syria threat is most under reported in Indian Press. KSA has already put its army on Grade 2 threat not because the US attacking syria but because Russian Warning on attacking KSA in backlash.And mind well Both the Russia and The US are self sufficient and net exporters of Crude oil. War is New Business and One can make “killing” out of it.