- Wealth PMS (50L+)
The 15,000 bond auction devolved over 25% today – that is, there weren’t enough bidders on the bonds and primary dealers HAD to buy it (they had underwritten the issue yesterday). Here’s quick look at how not getting subscriptions for over Rs. 4,000 cr. worth of bonds is noteworthy:
It’s the biggest absolute default (in amount) since the liquidity squeeze by the RBI in July 2013:
It is also the biggest failure by percentage devolved (in a single auction) since 2006:
And it catapults 2013-14 into the biggest devolved year (as a % of total auctions) since, hold your breath, 2000-01.
We have seen a devolvement of over Rs. 16,000 cr. of a total issue of Rs. 329,000 cr. since April 1, 2013; this is big, but you have to note that the economy has grown a lot since:
Note: there are four more auctions this week:
Impact: Bond devolvement means the higher prices are what the markets desire. Already the market yield for these securities went higher, and bond prices are 1.5% to 2% down. These will impact banks and primary dealer – who will see lower prices on their government bond holdings, and who will have to hold these bonds if they are devolved.
Banks will hurt, as will us taxpayers (who pay higher interest on government borrowings). This indicates a credit problem, and the RBI might want to intervene in the next auction, through an OMO auction. I think if they do intervene they should sell dollars to keep liquidity constant, so that there is no inflationary risk.
To subscribe to new posts by email, once a day, delivered to your Inbox:
Also, do check out Capital Mind Premium , where we provide high
quality analysis on macro, fixed income and stocks. Also see our
portfolio which has given stellar returns in our year, trade by trade
as we progress. Take a 30-day trial: