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Economy

RBI Says You Can’t Buy Property Abroad or Gold Coins, Increases Capital Controls

The RBI has now introduced more capital controls in order to protect the rupee from sliding further. The Rupee closed at about Rs.61.4 to a dollar on Wednesday. In an announcement, they have taken many measures to try and curb the outflow of dollars.

You can invest only $75K abroad per year, down from $200K

The earlier limit of $200K was perhaps too much? But it really wasn’t that much, and this limit change will hurt some individuals who’d buy. Also this is now the limit for gifts, for loans to NRIs by family and for outward remittances. And then:

You can’t buy property abroad

Yes, the RBI has stopped any residents from buying immovable property abroad. Indians were a small but growing set of people buying houses in the west where prices had dropped and are typically better and lower cost than most cities in India. That will no longer be allowed.

Companies can invest only 100% of networth, down from 400%

If they want to do more they have to get RBI approval.

But PSUs (Navratnas) can continue. This is blatant stupidity; how can you favour a government owned organisation over a private one for investing abroad?

No more gold coins or medallions

Yes, these are banned. I don’t know why. I suppose because banning them will help increase small ticket smuggling, and we need to let that happen along with all the big ticket smuggling happening recently.

Gold Players Need to Pay Upfront

Gold must be paid for upfront. No credit can be availed for the import. However I suppose banks can lend to companies against the gold later?

20% of all imports of Gold must be exported

This was explained earlier as well, and it continues. It’s a complex, micromanaged calculation, but it means that until 20% of any incoming consignment is reexported, the buyer won’t be able to take on fresh imports.

NRI deposits can be paid interest rates higher than domestic deposits

That’s in a separate circular and applies for deposits for 3 years or more. In addition, 3-5 year Forex deposits will get paid upto LIBOR+4% (from LIBOR+3%). Further, any new deposits (FCNR or NRE) with 3 years maturity or more won’t be part of NDTL – so no CRR and SLR requirements will apply. And, on such deposits, the priority sector lending restrictions will not apply either.

Impact: The capital controls will cause a flight of all foreign assets which will fear that eventually we will not allow people to take out rupees. This is clinically insane and a step taken in haste.

The gold import bits will encourage smuggling. It will also hurt some gold jewellers but to a small extent.

NRI deposits might increase marginally. But the fear of their not being allowed to take their money back through sudden statements like this will remain.

Overall, such steps are retrograde and bad for our economy. They are action but they are terrible action and it will take years to regain the confidence of people abroad. The rupee will weaken before it strengthens, though there may be a knee-jerk upward reaction on Friday.

However, watch for all equities to hurt in the short term.

  • Vidyanshu says:

    To call such steps regressive is an understatement. These are the 2 steps back wards kind of steps. Once you mention rate increases, FII’s head for the door. The next moment you announce gold control, capital control implies that now there is a scramble for the exits. How to kill a economy in 10 easy steps that’s what the RBI seems to be teaching us. They are incredibly well complemented by the Finance Ministry. No wonder all the technical analysts are saying that we are headed for doom and gloom…everyday they advice that traders should be shorting the market. I think Rupee is headed for much much lower soon and so are the markets.

  • P says:

    Almost back to the license permit raj of Indira…
    In any case, SG has modelled her politics on Indira, her dress style, her policies and politics of populism and entitlement and garibi hatao, if history has any lessons to teach, the Congress hasnt learnt many !
    Where will the money flow to? Markets , Debt , FDs ?

  • mangoman says:

    We think RBI and Government are trying to do something. Actually they are forced to act like headless chickens.
    FII’s are caught and due to shallowness of Indian Markets they are not in a position to go out. The first FII who escapes will get atleast his pants. Other FII may not get underwears also That is the status now.
    Already I read a article saying that the NRI deposit is reducing compared with previous year. Now if you control (repatriation), naturally they will be worried. So, in that count we have terrorised NRI’s also.
    The people who has plans to buy assets in foreign countries will not bring in the money to India henceforth.
    Poor RBI. They have the solution in hand but they are not allowed to use the tool.

  • Ninad says:

    Interested to know more about the RBI restriction on Indians planning to buy property overseas. I believe it would be applicable only for resident Indians, but it will be good to get some confirmation.