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Charts & Analysis

Ooh, I Spoke Too Soon on No Volatility in 2013


Remember when I said that there were no 2% days in 2013, and I was worried? That was April 10,  we’re now just two months and 10 days ahead, and we’ve already had six 2% days since.

What I said then was:

The answer, perhaps, is that this is a lull for stocks, and we are likely to see dramatic changes in volatility in the coming years. The “zeroes” in 2013 in the above charts strike me as particularly dangerous: We are likely to see a lot more volatility later this year, and probably in all coming years.

The zeroes in 2013 have now gone. We’re still not anywhere close to the volatility seen earlier, but we’re definitely on the journey:

2% days on the Nifty

I’ve traded the lack of volatility using options, and I think there’s a lot more volatility to come. However, it’s unlikely to all be in one direction, and options remain cheap.


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