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Economy

Q4 2013 GDP Growth at 4.78%, and I was SPOT ON about the Data Fudge Last Year

In a disappointing note, MOSPI tells us that the Q4 GDP growth estimate is 4.78%, one of the lowest we have seen in the last decade. Even in the depths of the madness in 2008, we didn’t slip this much:

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Sector Wise:

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Mining is expectedly down, but it is at the worst level this year. And then, everything else other than financial services has seen a downtrend this year.

If you look at the components, nearly everything is hurt. Our GDP growth seems to be coming on the back of “Changes in inventories” but they are a tiny bit (only about 60,000 cr. at the highest).

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The biggest single number – Private consumption – is down to 3.8% growth. The Government too is spending lesser and lesser net of inflation. Exports have sunk, imports remain at the same level or are higher. All this makes the GDP go down.

Massive Revision in Last Year’s GDP Figures (I was RIGHT!)

I had posted about the Great Indian GDP Data Fudge last year and then reconfirmed it with the RBI BOP figures later. Exports were vastly overreported and Imports, vastly underreported. It turns out I was right. A more detailed post to come, but here’s the “massive” revision in Q4 2012 Exports and Imports.

 

For Q4 2012 First Released Data (Rs. Cr) My estimates
(Rs. Cr.)
Revised GDP Numbers (Rs. Cr.)
Exports 679,926 605,117
(11% lower)
  605,865
(11% lower)
Imports 631,398 738,982
(17% higher)
  736,005
(17% higher)

I’m going to gloat, but I was dead right.

Growth for Q4 FY 2012 has been revised down to 5.1% from 6.5%. And that is post-inflation.

There are other problems evident in the GDP figures this year. And that includes a massive increase in “discrepancies”. Apparently, stuff we don’t know is now up to over 130,000 crores per quarter. That is a subject I will write about.

The markets have taken it on the chin:

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Shit just got real.