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Charts & Analysis

Advance Estimate for GDP Shows 5% Growth

GDP Growth for 2012-13 is estimated at 5%. Nominal growth is 13.3% and once you deflate this for inflation, the figure of 5% comes through.

This is the lowest growth number since 2002-03, and the lowest nominal growth figure since 2005-06 (nominal growth can be low with an even lower inflation number to get a high real growth).

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IMF meanwhile thinks we’ll do 5.4%. But then, they think our fiscal deficit is 8.7%, which would make Chidambaram bust a vessel or something.

We’ve seen a decline in growth rates in all except Mining, Construction and Social/personal services.

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(Source: MOSPI)

This data may not be trustworthy and to be fair, these are early estimates only.

cOfficial figures for the December quarter come only on Feb 28, the same day as the budget.

  • Phoenix says:

    Wow! As the world sees it, India is among the few countries in the world with good internal demand and no major internal issues (compared to others) and yet our government has the incredible ability to ensure that we struggle to grow ! We have little competition to beat our own stupidity. All our problems are self created ! I guess we all start whining about RBI cutting rates as the magic mantra as everything else is just perfect ? Here we are, with a once in a life time opportunity to attract world capital and what do we do ? We pillage HNIs, private companies and MNCs for fees, taxes, etc and scare them away ! The rarest of rare opportunities squandered away. All this scared money going to Chelsea, Kensington, fancy art, collectors items, etc.
    We create all the obstructions we can for businesses- few dozen permits, licences, clearances, bribes… Aayyee aaayyee aaaa. I tell ya. We need a builder as our next PM. Not rudderless idiots. Any guesses ?

    • Dheeraj says:

      Phoenix,
      By “builder” I hope you mean “nation builder” (wink!, wink!) not one we refer to colloquially.

      • Phoenix says:

        Just to I clarify meant nation builder. I could never have guessed that commentators could construe this literally as builders ! ! ! Unless you want the US/ Spanish real estate crash and lots of corruption !
        By the way, Obama was NO messiah for businesses as far as I know. He threatened Wall Street the day he got elected (they funded more to opposition)- the market had a one day negative reaction when he got elected. He has imposed more taxes as well.

    • fubar says:

      I am very skeptical of leaders who get projected as a messiah and their abilities. Recent case in point – Barack Obama. But what the heck, our local Messiah at least deserves a chance or two before we can write him off.

  • DK says:

    Despite all the talk of slowdown, I wonder why it does not seem to impact real estate at all ?
    Deepak, It’s been a while since you posted anything about the real estate market? I recently came to know that someone close to me was planning to sell his 3000 sq. ft. home in a tier-3 city in India for 1.2 Cr. I paid a similar price for a 3000 sq. ft home with a 6000 Sq. ft land near Dallas. Is it simply a lack of land that is causing these kind of price appreciation ?
    Or is it the old adage of the markets can remain irrational far longer than we can stay solvent ?

  • Kaushik says:

    DK you are correct in pointing that out.I also have an acquaintance who sold a 3BHK in Pune and got a nice home in NewJersey. He said after conversion he still had free cash. Makes me think something is not right in Indian context.

  • DJ says:

    DK and Kaushik, during the Japanese real estate bubble, the Imperial Palace in Tokyo (about 1.32 sq mi) was valued at more than all the real estate in California. By those standards, we could still be in rational territory 🙂
    On the other hand, I heard another interesting titbit from Prof Shiller today (on Bloomberg): that the real return on US real estate from 1890 to 1990 is 0%.

    “At its height, in 1989, real estate in Tokyo sold for as much as $139,000 a square foot—more than 350 times as much as choice property in Manhattan. Such valuation made the land under the Imperial Palace in Tokyo notionally worth more than all the real estate in California. The Japanese stock market, with some shares selling for a thousand times their earnings, similarly skyrocketed.”
    From: http://www.vanityfair.com/online/daily/2009/02/what-was-lost-and-found-in-japans-lost-decade