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Charts & Analysis

November Does 4.5%, Closes At 52 Week High

November 2012 saw a good run on the indexes, with both the Nifty and Sensex going up more than 4.5%.

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This is way better than November last year, which was a hugely negative 9.3%. The Sensex has done well for itself too:

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The last 10 years have been largely, very positive.

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As you can see, the Nifty graph has been, for the most part, positive. In the last ten years, YTD till November has been positive for 8 years. Prior to that, the years were mixed bags.

And then, the 5 year snapshot shows you the move:

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(Click for larger picture)

We are just 7% off the all time high and are at a new high since April 2011.

December has generally been rosy but that rule was broken last year. What happens this year? Do we hit new highs in 2012 or look forward to them in 2013? I’m not wagering a guess – the trend is up, and I’m all long and loving it.

  • statspotting says:

    Trends. Remember Taleb’s Thanksgiving Turkey?

  • statspotting says:

    man this is turning out to be a classic.
    taleb’s fund shutting down does not imply that taleb was wrong. to conclude in that manner would be falling into the same trap – one of induction. “i have watched taleb for x years. i have not seen taleb succeed with this black swan theory so far. therefore, i declare that he will never succeed”
    http://statspotting.com/2011/06/bitcoin-talebs-thanksgiving-turkey/

    • You could read it anyway you want mate, and reduce it to a theory of “this hasn’t happened, so it’s not a proof that it won’t happen”. Simply put, Taleb’s strategy loses when you lose all your chips. Game over. When you lose all your chips, you can’t place any more bets. If you put 1% of your capital per month on a black swan bet, then after 100 months, you’re done. If the black swan happens in the 101st month, you are right and you are toast, both at the same time. There’s a difference in being Taleb, and being Talebed.
      Trend following is way more complex than putting all your money behind a single trade, and you obviously know that. Yet, you choose to decry it saying it’s waiting for the Taleb turkey. Everything is, mate, but you have to place your bets, and trend following has been quite as successful, if not more, than a Taleb bet. But it will always look sucky in those whipsaws when the Turkey effect is present – like some traders say, whipsaws are part of your life, learn to live with them, and don’t try to needlessly avoid them. For me, being all long is unusual, but I don’t have any short signals – and when they come, if they come with a loss in a current position, so be it; just have to live with it.

    • fubar says:

      Buffet says that you lose most not in bear market but when you hold poor quality stocks through a bull market. And to make that makes way more sense than Taleb ever made.

  • Statspotting says:

    You are right in so many ways. Solid points on placing bets, you are right, there are many instances of not being able to survive till you are proven right.
    Thanks for the detailed response. One point though, that would actually support your viewpoint on this – we are all obviously looking at very tiny subsets of the universal set.
    http://statspotting.com/2011/04/after-3-reds-on-the-roulette-table-do-you-pick-red-or-black/