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Charts & Analysis

The First Four Months: 13.5%

With a marginally negative return in April, the markets have still managed to keep a double digit return for 2012, with a 13.5% return YTD.

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And the Sensex:

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In a random stat: we’ve had two consecutive months of less than 2% moves in the whole month. 2% is a randomly taken number of course, but the bare minimum I expect the index to move, in a month, is 2%. The last time we had such a situation was Jul-Aug 2010, and in September the index moved 11%. Prior to that was Jun-Jul 2006, and Aug 2006 saw a +8% move, and then Feb-Mar-Apr 2004 when in May (after elections) the Index fell 17%. I believe that we’ll see some serious moves in the next two months; just don’t know when and which direction.