- Wealth PMS (50L+)
I’ve moved to Bangalore, and have achieved one note of significance: Varun’s school admission to a school that we thought would suit him best. To compensate, we now struggle to find a house to rent in the Sarjapur Road area (where the school is closest – my priorities are that the kids need to travel the least amount!) That goes on, so if you know anyone who has a house vacant in the vicinity, please do connect.
Coming to things more sanguine: I have been listed under people to follow in Outlook’s cover story on Twitter, in the Corporate section. I’m not sure how I ended up there, ahead of much better corporate people, such as @agrawalsanjeev (ex-CEO at Big Bazaar) or @anandmahindra (of M&M fame). I will of course take all the credit I can get, so let me not be modest and say I didn’t deserve it, even if I didn’t.
One thing that worries me is the impact of the budget on foreign fund flows. Let’s see what we know:
Here’s one crazy but plausible course of action. The rupee continues to slide. RBI sells dollars to counter, but that doesn’t hold up for too long. Oil prices in rupees keep going up and increasing the government’s own deficit, and the government is forced to up retail prices. This creates a political problem, and more uncertaintly. A few corporates default (they’ll do so anyhow, according to me). Interest rates remain high due to inflation, growth comes down to the point at which RBI can ignore it no more and then it cuts rates.
The next few months are interesting, and if it’s anything to go by, I would stay away from PSU stocks or those that depend on government policy (like infra stocks). I don’t see a trigger for a sudden, deep fall just yet, but there are global issues that dominate such issues, and there are enough problems abroad that can hurt us.
Just penning my thought process, in creating an investing plan for the next financial year.