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Dec 2011 GDP Growth At 6.09%, Lowest in 3 Years


GDP Growth for the 3rd Quarter ending December 2011 is at 6.09% over the previous year. This is the lowest since March 2009.


On a sector basis, every sector has fallen other than “Electricity” and Social and personal services. People are most likely taking more haircuts and using hair dryers.

image Agriculture is below 3%, and mining is negative. Nothing is above 10% this quarter.

And then, broken down by components:


The elements of concern are that Government expenditure has gone up 6.5% (remember, this is adjusted for inflation- in unadjusted terms it has gone up over 13%) and Private consumption 6.2% (15% unadjusted).

Investments are down 1% (unadjusted, is up 6.2%). This is a problem – no investments, no future GDP growth.

Exports (17%) are growing faster than imports (13%) which is probably due to the rupee having dropped to Rs. 54 in December. The adjustment – to reduce imports because of a bad exchange rate – usually lags by a quarter or so.

Overall, not very impressive. But then this data gets revised every quarter, so no point making grand assumptions about it right now. In about five years, if the Gods of MOSPI condescend to tell us, we might know exactly where our problem really was.


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