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Charts & Analysis

November 2011 Inflation at 9.11%, September revised up to 10%

In a shocking development – not really – Monthly inflation for the month of November has come in at 9.11%.

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As for the components, notice that slowly the primary articles piece is coming down, but the rest – Fuel and Manufactured goods, continue to inch up:

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Fuel’s up due to the revision in prices of petrol and the hike in ATF and related fuel. Of course the prices of coking coal and coke are still not revised, distorting the real impact.

The troubling issue is that this data is preliminary. Data is revised two months later. For September, whose revised data was presented today, the original figure shown was 9.72%, which is now revised to – hold your breath – 10%.

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In a significant note, the revision of Manufactured Goods takes it to 8%, the highest since September 2008.

This will weigh on RBI’s decision to raise or not. The rupee, at 53.8, will now cause inflation in fuel and manufactured goods, while the winter crop dampens the prices of agri-commodities.