Capitalmind
Capitalmind
Actionable insights on equities, fixed-income, macros and personal finance Start 14-Days Free Trial
Actionable investing insights Get Free Trial
Fixed Income

Cherry Picking 30 Year Bond Data?

Bloomberg posts an article about how in the last 30 years, bonds have beaten stocks. But turn the clock back 30 years ago, and what do you find?

image

In 1981, the Volcker move had taken interest rates – and thus yields – to big highs. The 30 year was available at 15% yields, which means a return of 15% per year (sure, not compounded).

(Higher yields = Lower prices)

Given that, wouldn’t the 30-year bond have outperformed in any case? Equities in the US have returned around 12% compounded since then, I think. Perhaps a case of appropriately fitting data, one thinks?

In India, I don’t have enough data, but stocks have done better over the last 10-15 years.

Like our content? Join Capitalmind Premium.

  • Equity, fixed income, macro and personal finance research
  • Model equity and fixed-income portfolios
  • Exclusive apps, tutorials, and member community
Subscribe Now Or start with a free-trial