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Charts & Analysis

A Tough October In Store

The End-of-Month Nifty returns have been less than stellar in the recent months, as September closed in with –1.2% and the Nifty dropped nearly 20% in the year.

Nifty Monthly Returns

October has traditionally been lousy; even if you remove the 26% drop in 2008, October has averaged a –0.6% average return, with 11 of the last 17 Octobers showing a negative return.

Consider that already, in just two days, the Nifty has fallen 3.5%. In fact the last expiry – last thursday – was above 5,000 – and we are at 4772, nearly 5% down from there in three days. Oh, it’s going to be a crazy October, for sure, with earnings coming right through it.

  • Abhijit says:

    Good compilation; would help if there is another row at the bottom with averages for each month

  • Kapil says:

    Hi Deepak, I believe that you have pushed return displayed for each month by one month. The return for month of September is -1.9% (considering we are measuring from Sep 2 till Oct 3rd) and not -1.2%. -1.2% is for the month of August. Likewise -8.8% is the return for July.
    Have a look at
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=^NSEI&a=06&b=1&c=2011&d=09&e=3&f=2011&g=m

  • Pajat says:

    Thanks for the graphics!
    I would request a bit more data to get even better picture: could you add a column for exact-nifty-value,dividend-yield, PE-ratio , PB-ratio on 1st day of January each year. Just four more columns to your table will be enough. For example, one may infer from the PE Ratio on 01-JAN-1994 that, due to very high PE valuation in 1994, the next 10 years were bad for nifty-index.
    Also, a column for the nifty-EPS on 01-JAN-YYYY might also be helpful to compare the way it grows/changes year-on-year. One can infer from such a column that EPS does not grow linearly at say 15% y-o-y, and often stagnates for sometime and then accelerates heavily for few years, like between 2004-2007.