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Charts & Analysis

Nifty, Sensex, Gold & Silver Long Term Returns

I got this as an email from Mr. Prakash Kamath, on a group I’m on. A graph containing the monthly Sensex, Gold and Silver changes over a long time.

Silver Returns Since 2003:

Silver Returns by Mr. Prakash Kamath

Gold Returns Since 2003:

Gold Returns By Prakash Kamath

Sensex Returns Since 1981:

Sensex Returns By Prakash Kamath

 

I then decided to build my own looking at the Sensex and Nifty data, but I don’t have Sensex Data going back all the way to 1981 (only since 1991). And Nifty data since 1994, so here we go:

Nifty Monthly Returns Since 1994:

Nifty Monthly Returns by Deepak Shenoy

Turns out May is a highly volatile month – the highest standard deviation (10.9%) has happened here. And why not? In May 2004, the index fell to the lower circuit because of the BJP being voted out. In May 2009, the Congress stayed and the Left was out, so the index went to the upper circuit. In 2006, there was a 30% crash in May after the RPL listing. I don’t remember 1998 or 1999 but those were also down and up Mays.

December looks like a wonderful time to invest – just one occasion for the Nifty since 1994 that the index had negative returns; an average of 5% with an SD of 4.7%. Even on the Sensex we’ve had negative returns in December just five times.

Average Growth Rates

Since 1991, the CAGR of the Sensex to April 2011, a 20 year period, is 15.42%.

Since 1994, the Nifty’s CAGR from 1083 to 5551, is a miserable 10.11%.

Remember that when people show you 25% growth rates for equity in a long term chart.

  • Ankur Lakhia says:

    >Deepak sir,

    I have data of sensex closing on 31st March every year since 1980. (31st March 1979 is base with sensex = 100). Analysis of this data to look at returns of various periods like, 3 years, 5 years, 10 years etc gives interesting picture. If you provide me your e-mail address, I will send you this data.

  • sharan gill says:

    how can the nifty and the sensex be out of tune by approx 5%

  • Kulbir Singh says:

    Hi Deepak
    I was studying ur excel but i think their r some mistakes in the calculation , or if u can share the way u have calculated the monthly returns , i was trying to do it by formula
    (ending value – beginning value) / beginning value but certain values don’t match at my end
    if you can help on the same