Capitalmind
Capitalmind
Actionable insights on equities, fixed-income, macros and personal finance Start 14-Days Free Trial
Actionable investing insights Get Free Trial
General

Will India’s Share of World GDP Mean Revert?

An interesting presentation on the Asian Financial Sector by Pedro Rodeia, Head of Asian Financial Institutions Group at McKinsey. (Thanks Arvin for the tip!)

image

Awesome presentation, and for an insider who can invest in Indian banks, very useful.

  • DK says:

    >Oh No!!!! How long before we get a bunch of jingoistic mails detailing the details of India's glorious past?

    Anyway, pretty good presentation, the key point being in the slide where he mentions the regulations favor local players.

    Going back to the the chart on your post, I take issue with statement that the "half-share" of asia is "natural" .

    If you look at the graph, the share of GDP drops very significantly after industrial revolution. This could either coincide with Europeans landing in India (as those inevitable mails will tell us) or it could mean that the share of GDP was directly related to our population and once productivity/efficiency increased thanks to Industrial Revolution population did not count as much.

    I am also interested in getting the data behind this graph including the absolute values for the GDP figures and how those GDP figures were obtained in the first place. Do you know where they are available?

  • Anonymous says:

    >Those data are available from goldman sachs report dated 1-1-2001.

    Plus ENAM and Emkay global had report but the sticks are broken so non readable.

  • Varun Parwal says:

    >Nice report – do you have something similar for the financial services sector in North America and Europe? Would be great if you could share those too.

  • abhikush says:

    >@DK I agree. I have created a graph using the same source that shows GDP/Capita as a percent of world average. Have a look at it http://abhikush.blogspot.com/2010/09/gdp-per-capita.html (the larger image is at http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_wKCpoio7ZyY/TH7ASN1ca1I/AAAAAAAAF7Y/ZHl3vjmG75E/s1600/GDP+per+Capita+1-2008+AD.png)

    It shows GDP/Capita of G7 countries + India & China as a percent of world average.

  • PK says:

    >But, I wish the title of the blog was more appropriate; something like
    "Really WILD guesses on historical share of world GDP"

    When we can't state our India's present GDP properly (with all the computers at our disposal), how has McKinsey done this for centuries old period with less preserved data?
    Am I missing something here?