So we fell a little bit and the U.S. market is depressed. Should we be worried? Well, not according to some of the longer term trend indicators:
The Nifty (the above is a futures chart) is still above it’s 50 and 100 day moving averages, and is way away from the trader delight – the first real Fibonacci retracement at 5115. That’s some short term support for a trader looking long, and the recent lows of 5162 aren’t yet breached.
And a two day fall on lower volumes is honestly, not very trend creating.
It’s strange though that the Greek debt issue can become so bad? Reasons usually come after the fact but is there more to this fall than just a Greek bailout? The obvious is out there, but is it simply the straw that breaks the camel’s back?
Now I’m all for a new trend to begin – we’ve seen a near vertical uptrend in the last year, sobered down to a dull range in the last four months. I have been getting whipsawed continuously on a trend following system, which is just about keeping it’s head above water. But I need to constantly question my confirmation bias that a new trend is on; the bias that makes me want the trend more than the trends wants to be. The ultimate fight is with the demons inside you, it seems.
