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Deepak Shenoy Talks: Inflation, Market Cap To GDP and more…

What follows is a 5 minute (okay, 6 minute) video on some of the data I wanted to blog about but decided I’d talk about it instead. It’s a format I call "Deepak Shenoy Talks”.  I know it’s unprofessional and does not come across as the fantastic commercials you might see on TV nowadays, but do watch. And I very much appreciate your comments and feedback.

Things I spoke about:

  • Bank Credit’s reached 16.75% and is heating up.
  • Inflation’s touched 14.5% at the primary articles level (weekly) and is likely to be high because of the low base effect – last year, April started a 12 week deflation cycle. Higher crude prices this year will add to the headline inflation figure.

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  • India’s market cap to GDP has traditionally been below 100% – or the total market cap of the stocks listed is less than the total GDP of the country. It went above 100% in Oct 2007 till April 2008, when there was a big crash; we went all the way down to 46% of GDP. And now we’re at that point again – 100% of GDP.

image image

  • Two charts look good – HiTech Plastics made a big upmove to Rs. 110 on some incredible volume today, on news they had started production at a new plant. Hero Honda is riding the upper bollinger band and is really really moving – with a Rs. 80 dividend tomorrow it will see an apparent correction of sorts, but it has been a 250% move since last year.
  • Brijesh says:

    >Interesting and a more personal touch. Would definetely like to have more such videos.

  • Dhruva says:

    >Nice initative on vlog … you sound somewhat like Sachin Tendulkar btw 🙂

  • Srikanth Meenakshi says:

    >Deepak,

    Very nice video – well-organized, clearly narrated with excellent charts. I appreciate the work and thought that has gone behind the production.

    Of the four segments – inflation, gdp/mktcap, credit, and stock picks – the one on gdp/mc was the best – it was the most revealing and intriguing. However, all of the first three segments were so well supported by data that it was interesting watching/hearing.

    The stock pick section kinda stood out like a odd one of the lot. You could possibly do it separately from the economic analysis.

    It would also be very interesting if you could do an Andy Rooney like tail-piece with a special comment of sorts – would be fun 🙂

    Technically, the audio was clear enough but could do without some background noise. The images were legible when viewed in full screen mode.

    All in all, a great start – looking forward to more good stuff!

    – Srikanth (FundsIndia)

  • Anonymous says:

    >I have been following your blog from late 2008, when I realized I need to do more than saving. I liked the video, a nice change :).

    Being selfish, I would request you to have one talk in a month (or whatever period works better for you), which is for newbies that uncovers the jargon and help them better understand/appreciate the numbers/graph or some of the content on this blog.

    A newbie question: The plot of market cap to GDP reflects a peak (or crossing 100% mark). However, the time scale is very small? There was a decline after the previous peak. Has this pattern been observed on longer time scale? Apologies, if my question didn't make sense.

    ~sr

  • Deepak Shenoy says:

    >Brijesh, Dhruva: Thanks very much!

    Srikant: Wow, fantastic feedback, thanks! Will try to get rid of background audio noise, and will try and get the Rooney touch 🙂

    and yes, good idea to move the stock picks to a different video altogether….

  • Aditya Kumar Pandey says:

    >I have this rule – never watch a video presentation, unless others recommend. Watching video takes time. It would be good if all the excellent material you r putting in vlog, is also present as a transcript…

  • lukkha says:

    >very cool!

    For inflation (and perhaps for credit growth also) it would be better to use seasonally adjusted numbers no? Perhaps from Ajay Shah's cycle.in although I don't know if they release numbers soon enough…

  • Arghya says:

    >Great Work !
    But I also agree with Aditya Kumar Pandey that watching video takes time. I think it’s easier for you, but it has a risk. People like me who know you for a long time would not mind if there is a video which perceived as waste of time to watch but it might fail to attract new viewers (Hope you would not take it personally).

    Anyway the current format is fine as you have also written a brief (I think you have already posted these things except about stocks). But I don’t understand the reason why you haven’t mentioned about “HiTech Plastics” before breakout?? Please take your changes and don’t worry about those derogatory comments which are just meant to demoralize you. Please post before breakout and before being proved right.

    Another very important point – Please do mention the BSE-code or NSE-code for the companies you are referring.

    Hero Honda is on my filter for last 18 months. But I was too afraid to touch it after burning hand with Reliance Industrial Infrastructure (RIIL). I always thought it would be stupid to enter at this level 🙂 Anyway you didn’t mention anything about fundamentals.

    Take care

  • Deva says:

    >I think watching videos is the easiest way to understand something at least i understand stuff better when i see visuals rather than when i read…Deepak excellent effort, the stuff and material you have collected is also good…

  • Anonymous says:

    >- Nice one. I think it is easier for one to screencast like this than type endlessly. The summary with brief important points is also nice in the blog. Then we can decide to watch video or not. Also search engines will index the content (ie the summary)
    – I thought you used some advanced charting software. Now I see you use "plain" excel.
    – The video compression looks very good, 10MB for 6 min video. Please let know what software you used for recording. (I was evaluating Camstudio (free), but file size for recordings is incredibly huge for it)

  • Annonymous says:

    >Hey i liked the video. I have been following this blog for last couple of years and really like the analysis that you do.

    One point i would like to make is that though bank credit has been weak we have seen strong IPO/FPO/QIP fund raising last yr and also ECB's making a comeback. At the end of the day total inflow to cos should be looked at and not Bank Credit growth alone. I think mint had an article on that. will try to get the link.

  • shankar_1979 says:

    >Hi Deepak,
    I am a regular follower of your blog. A picture is worth a thousand words, indeed.. The video was very good, but it was a bit jarring to see the transition from macro-trends to stock analysis. My (humble) suggestion would be to have the video stick to a specific topic, even if the duration is longer.

  • Anonymous says:

    >hey deepak from where did u get the indian market cap to gdp ratio chart on a daily basis can u share plz

  • Anonymous says:

    >Why market cap to GDP ratio of India is less than US ?