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Charts & Analysis

More Inflation (or the lack of it)

The latest inflation report has inflation at -1.55%. This is WPI inflation but the slope of it is doggedly positive. At 234.7, the index is at the highest level since 15 November 2008:

What’s also interesting is that the revisions of two month past number is substantial. This time the index has moved from it’s original reported number of 231.6 to 233.9, which is a substantial increase (looks like a little upward blip in an otherwise smoothish curve, around May 2009). That could mean that the index even now could be even higher.

The other thing to note is that the “primary articles” index has been going up consistently. I will need to do a separate analysis of that (another post!).

At this rate we should be out of the “deflation” cycle by November. I’m not sure how to call it, but to me the high dependence on food makes the WPI very skewed. My urban-level expenses have been fairly constant or dropped – rent, fuel, eating out, holidays etc. But then that’s me – may be different for others.