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Why you shouldn’t believe predictions, including mine

Because they can be just plain wrong. I wrote as my prediction for this year, in my Diwali post:

It will not be a year for the index. The index may gyrate between 1500 and 4000 (Nifty) and is likely to face sharp upmoves and slow downmoves through the year. It will not be worthwhile to invest in the broad index.

Ha! We are at 4500, so I was wrong. Just for the record.

There are no excuses. I was wrong. That’s it.

If I were a commentator on a TV channel I might have introduced different factors here, involving words like “game changing elections”, “strong India growth story” etc. That would trigger most readers’ bullshit alert, apart from making me feel like a weasel. So I gladly admit that I was wrong.

Given that I’m a stubborn mule, I will continue to predict; after all, that’s the freedom one has when writing a personal blog. I just hope I continue to have the good sense to eat my own words.

  • Gurinder says:

    >Like it 😉

  • Sajal says:

    >Deepak, remarkable honesty! Though I'm sure almost no one predicted the current rally.

  • Anonymous says:

    >Laat to last Diwali you were bang on target. But I agree, we shud not believe any any one individual or a big brokerage house too. There's no one called a market expert….at the most there can be market informers or market/industry watchers. Being glued to their domain they 'feel' they can predict changes.

  • kanagala says:

    >What is your prediction for the future? Do you think, we need to accept the mistake and start investing? Do you think, we are getting back to growth phase.

  • saiberspace says:

    >you got the fundamentals right and you are not blowing bull horns like the paid actors on TV. We appreciate your honesty and understand the "game" of predictions

  • Mr.Candid says:

    >No one knows what would happen. Unfortunately most of the professionals are paid to predict, which would always turn exactly opposite. You should take pride that we readers are not paying you. As long you're doing this prediction for free of cost, we don't mind your ???

  • -A Well Wisher says:

    >Hey buddy!
    Long time. How'u doing? Hope your hedge fund is havin a great time.

  • Technovestor says:

    >no one could have got it right yah!.. i was predicting 3700-3800 nifty peak for the year….. and 2200 bottom.. pathetically wrong on the first count atleast.. quite unlikely we will see 2200 now.. so i'll be wrong on both counts..

    somehow, this time, i did not stick my actual trading activities to the predictions i made.. half the time my mind is gyrating between this figure and that figure.. but i'm now not sticking my neck out to make bets on the figures i have in mind..

    certain securities exhibit a degree of persistence i.e. they continue to move in an up / down direction consistently a little or a lot more than what a random walk suggests.. time and again, we have seen this.. like in July07-Nov07 bull run, Sept/Oct of 08 crash, then mar/jun 09 bull run, I have quite benefitted from a read called 'The (Mis)Behaviour of Markets' by Benoit Mandelbrot. It has helped me a lot,or so i'm thinking.. 😉

    i am still predicting some nifty values in my head right now, but does it god damn matter 😉

  • rapidriser says:

    >Hi Deepak

    Since it is confession time, why don't you also admit that you were wrong about the interest rate movements and the rise in G-Sec prices predicted by you. Inflation has gone negative but the yields are simply not going lower.

  • Deepak Shenoy says:

    >rapid riser: good point. Though I've not yet written that off. When I sell my investment that'll be the day I say goodbye to that prediction as well.