So I’ve come to an understanding that the real estate sector is going to get destroyed. This diwali will be their worst yet, in my opinion. And Unitech is probably the highest P/E play in the sector, and focussed largely on Delhi/NCR where the prices haven’t yet fallen quite that much.
Delhi/NCR is a weird place that way – lot of black money, and very good roads/infrastructure. Still, there is enormous amount of housing becoming available and literally everything hinges on Diwali. With interest rates staying high, Unitech is bound to suffer – at least as much as the others. Brigade and Sobha have suffered hugely – P/Es are now down to 10 or so – and DLF is also valued at a lower P/E. Yet, I believe these companies tend to overstate earnings, which will only take them so far.
So, another short. Future traded last at 167.7, and the lot size is 900, for which I can short three lots with a 10% exposure.
The spreadsheet is now open for view.
Ignore the small profit on ICICI – it’s too early to gloat. Note also that I don’t have price targets. I don’t have a “system” way to trade this. In fact I have no real positions on it in my personal account, because I only trade systems nowadays.
And as usual, disclosure: No positions, but I could have any position, even the reverse (long), because I trade only what my computer throws out. This “strategy” is not meant to be advice and is purely educational.